Nvidia's Feb 25th Earnings Report: Trade the AI Chip Leader's Volatility With 2X Bull and 1X Bear Exposure

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Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) is set to report its fourth quarter fiscal 2026 results on February 25, 2026, after the market close. This report arrives at a pivotal moment as the company moves into full-scale volume production of its Blackwell architecture. For traders looking to capitalize on the expected price swings,  the leveraged and inverse Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X (NVDU) and Bear 1X (NVDD) Shares offer a way to amplify exposure to Nvidia’s single-stock performance during this high-stakes earnings window.

Wall Street analysts forecast earnings per share (EPS) of $1.45, representing a 70.6% surge from the $0.85 reported in the same quarter last year. Nvidia enters this print with significant momentum, having exceeded earnings expectations in three of the last four quarters. Investor sentiment has been further electrified by OpenAI’s reported $100 billion fundraising initiative. This massive capital injection reinforces Nvidia’s GPU technology as the indispensable backbone of global AI scaling.

Analyst Sentiment and Price Targets

Major financial institutions remain overwhelmingly bullish on Nvidia, with 44 of 50 analysts maintaining a "Strong Buy" rating and a consensus price target of $255.34 suggesting over 30% upside. Goldman Sachs maintains a "Buy" rating and a $250 target, anticipating a "beat and raise" report driven by heavy cloud spending from firms like AWS and Azure. Morgan Stanley also holds a $250 target, viewing the evolution of "sovereign AI factories" as a key buffer against typical industry cycles. Meanwhile, UBS recently raised its target to $245, noting that massive global demand for the Blackwell architecture is effectively neutralizing any regional headwinds from trade restrictions.

Building on Record Q3 Results and Critical Factors for the Q4 Earnings Report

Nvidia’s upcoming report follows a record-breaking Q3 fiscal 2026, where the company posted EPS of $1.30 and revenue of $57 billion. Data center revenue alone reached $51.2 billion, a 66% increase year over year, fueled by sold-out cloud GPUs and the first volume shipments of Blackwell chips. Management’s strong Q4 revenue guidance of $65 billion reflects immense confidence in sustained infrastructure demand.

This outlook is anchored by massive deals like the 10-gigawatt deployment partnership with OpenAI. Analysts at D.A. Davidson suggest that if OpenAI successfully completes its $100 billion fundraising effort, the resulting expansion in research and computing will act as a primary tailwind for Nvidia’s long-term market dominance.

The focus now shifts to several pivotal factors that will determine the stock's post-earnings trajectory. Investors are primarily tracking the production ramp of the Blackwell architecture, specifically the delivery timelines for B200 and GB200 systems. Because these liquid-cooled, rack-scale supercomputers are significantly more complex to manufacture, any updates on supply chain yields will directly impact the stock. 

Furthermore, maintaining industry-leading gross margins above the 73% to 75% range is critical as the company manages the rising costs of HBM3e memory. Ultimately, management’s guidance for fiscal 2027 will provide the definitive signal the market needs to confirm that the current AI buildout is a permanent structural shift rather than a temporary peak.

Strategic Trading Tools for Trading NVDA’s Earnings Volatility

Leveraged and inverse ETFs provide direct paths for traders who wish to concentrate risk and reward on Nvidia's specific results rather than a diversified index.

Bullish Trade: NVDU

The Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X Shares (NVDU) allows traders to double their exposure to Nvidia's single-stock movements.

• Targets 200% of Nvidia's daily performance
  • When Nvidia rises 1%, NVDU aims for a 2% gain (before fees)
  • When Nvidia falls 1%, NVDU aims for a 2% decline (before fees)
• A useful tool for traders expecting Nvidia to beat Q4 estimates and raise guidance on sustained AI infrastructure demand, Blackwell chip adoption, or accelerating hyperscaler spending
• Captures Nvidia-specific upside with 2X leverage, concentrating risk and reward on the single stock rather than a diversified semiconductor basket
• Average daily volume: 271,000 shares

Bearish Trade: NVDD

The Direxion Daily NVDA Bear 1X Shares (NVDD) provides inverse exposure to Nvidia without traditional short-selling mechanics.

• Delivers inverse (-1X) daily performance versus Nvidia
  • When Nvidia drops 1%, NVDD aims for a 1% gain (before fees)
  • When Nvidia rises 1%, NVDD aims for a 1% decline (before fees)
• Valuable for traders concerned about Nvidia disappointing on margins, guidance, or Blackwell production timelines, or for those seeking a tactical hedge against concentrated Nvidia exposure
• Allows retirement account holders to take bearish positions on Nvidia without the operational complexity and margin requirements of shorting stock
• Average daily volume: 286,000 shares

Both NVDU and NVDD reset their exposure daily and work best as short-term trading tools rather than buy-and-hold investments. These products require active oversight and are designed for traders who understand leverage effects, single-stock concentration risk, and daily rebalancing dynamics.

Nvidia’s February 25 earnings report arrives at a critical juncture for global AI investment. With OpenAI’s potential $100 billion fundraising efforts underscoring the massive capital still flowing into computing power, the market is bracing for significant volatility in NVDA shares. For active traders, the leveraged and inverse Direxion Daily NVDA Bull 2X (NVDU) and Bear 1X (NVDD) Shares serve as powerful tools to navigate these expected price swings. Whether the results spark a Blackwell-driven rally or a cautious consolidation, these ETFs provide the precision necessary to trade one of the most anticipated reports in the Nvidia's history.

To learn more about all Direxion's Single Stock Leveraged and Inverse ETFS, Click Here

Investing in leveraged and inverse ETFs involves significant risk. These products are designed for short-term trading and should not be expected to track the underlying stock's performance over periods longer than a single day.

*Short selling: Short-selling is a trading strategy where investors borrow shares and sell them, hoping the stock price will fall.

The Funds do not seek to achieve their stated investment objective for a period of time different than a trading day. Investing in a Direxion Shares ETF may be more volatile than investing in broadly diversified funds. The use of leverage by the Fund increases the risk to the Fund. The Direxion Shares ETFs are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by sophisticated investors who understand leverage risk and the consequences of seeking daily leveraged investment results and intend to actively monitor and manage their investment.  

Investing in the funds involves a high degree of risk. Unlike traditional ETFs, or even other leveraged and/or inverse ETFs, these leveraged and/or inverse single-stock ETFs track the price of a single stock rather than an index, eliminating the benefits of diversification. Leveraged and inverse ETFs pursue daily leveraged investment objectives, which means they are riskier than alternatives which do not use leverage. They seek daily goals and should not be expected to track the underlying stock’s performance over periods longer than one day. They are not suitable for all investors and should be utilized only by investors who understand leverage risk and who actively manage their investments. The Funds will lose money if the underlying stock’s performance is flat, and it is possible that the Bull Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance increases, and the Bear Fund will lose money even if the underlying stock’s performance decreases, over a period longer than a single day. Investing in the Funds is not equivalent to investing directly in NVDA.

An investor should carefully consider a Fund’s investment objective, risks, charges, and expenses before investing. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about the Direxion Shares. To obtain a Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit our website at direxion.com. A Fund’s prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing.

NVIDIA Corporation Investing Risk — NVIDIA Corporation faces risks associated with meeting the evolving needs of its large markets – gaming, data center, professional visualization and automotive – and identifying new products, services and technologies; competition in its current and target markets; changes in customer demand; supply chain issues; manufacturing delays; potential significant mismatches between supply and demand giving rise to product shortages or excessive inventory; the dependence on third-parties and their technology to manufacture, assemble, test, package or design its products which reduces control over product quantity and quality, manufacturing yields, development, enhancement and product delivery schedules; significant product defects; international operations, including adverse economic conditions; impacts from climate change, including water and energy availability; business investment and acquisitions; system security and data protection breaches, including cyberattacks; business disruptions; a limited number of customers; the ability to attract, retain and motivate executives and key employees; the proper function of its business processes and information systems; its intellectual property; and other regulatory and legal issues.

Semiconductor Industry Risk – Semiconductor companies may face intense competition, both domestically and internationally, may have limited product lines, markets, financial resources or personnel and may face risks related to the availability of materials.

Information Technology Sector Risk — The value of stocks of information technology companies and companies that rely heavily on technology is particularly vulnerable to rapid changes in technology product cycles, rapid product obsolescence, government regulation, and competition, both domestically and internationally, including competition from competitors with lower production cost.

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