Can A 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Keep The Up Trend Intact.

Can A 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement Keep The Up Trend Intact.

(LEQ26) 

We previously posted an article on 6/22/26 titled,

Did A 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Just End The Cattle Rally?

In that article we mentioned that a failure to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can end the rally for now. The first target when using the ONE44 78.6% rule is to look for 78.6% of where it just came from and this was 237.75, this completed this target on 7/7/26. We will now see if it also ended the bull market for the time being. 

It is currently sitting on 38.2% of the contract high and low at 231.25. Following the ONE44 38.2% rule, this is the level that needs to hold to keep the current uptrend intact. Provided it can hold this area the long term target is a new high. A failure to hold this area can send it 61.8% of the same move.

This is our analysis for August Cattle that we put out on 7/9/26.

Cattle

August

From last week,

There were no closes above the 247.65 (78.6%) swing point for the week and the selloff from it has hit the 240.80 major Gann square and this will be the key level for the week. A failure to make that new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can still be the end of the rally for now when following the ONE44 78.6% rule, however as always we will watch every retracement on any setback to see just how weak, or strong the market is regardless of the longer term target.

Use 240.80 as the swing point for the week.

 Below it, the short term target is 78.6% of where it just came from at 237.50, this is the first target following the ONE44 78.6% rule. The longer...

This week completed the 78.6% (247.65) to 78.6% at 237.50 and this will be the key level for the week. If this is all it can setback look for a rally to 78.6% back the other way per the ONE44 78.6% rule.

Use 237.50 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 6/22/26 high at 246.60. A failure to turn lower from this area gives us only major Gann squares to look for resistance and then use as the swing point when closed above, the next two are 257.07 and 265.40. Any rally that can't get above the 240.80 major Gann square is a negative sign and a new low can quickly follow.

Below it, the short term target is 38.2% of the contract high and low at 231.25, this is the long term swing point. Taking out 231.25 turns the long term trend negative and the long term target area is 61.8% back to the contract low at 218.25 and the 217.40 major Gann square. There is one major Gann square before then to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below at 225.46.

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Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

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