The Makings Of The Next Sugar Rally

The Makings Of The Next Sugar Rally

(SBV26) 

The chart is key to this analysis.
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There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.

The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart.

The second is Fibonacci retracements.

Here are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

This is the short version.

A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.

A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.

A 61.8%  level can send the market 61.8% of where it just can from and cause wide swings keeping the market in a trading range.

A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.

We have done 45 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets. Here is the latest

Sugar has been in a bear market that has been defined by its inability to get above a 38.2% retracement on any rally attempt. Going back to September of 2024 the market was unable to get above 38.2% back to the contract high at 18.30, after making a new low from there the next rally failed again to above 38.2% back to the same high at 18.00 on 3/19/25 and 4/2/25. The next rally attempt after making a slightly lower low on 7/3/26 that held the 16.35 major Gann square could only get to 23.6% at 17.30 on 8/13/25 keeping the market very negative and a much bigger break followed.

The next two attempts to rally fell short of 23.6% at 15.50 (stopping at the 15.09 major Gann square) on the first one and the second one hit 38.2% back to the contract high at 16.35, also a major Gann square keeping the trend negative.

The last three lows all held the 13.68 major Gann square on 2/12/26, 4/17/26 and 6/23/26. What is just below this is 78.6% on the weekly continuation chart at 13.40. This is the reason we think a longer term rally is in the making. It has done enough sideways trading to build the base for the next rally, however it can still make a new low and as long as it holds 13.40 we believe the long term target from there is 38.2% on the weekly continuation chart at 19.00, this is also true if no new low is made.

Use 15.50 as the swing point for the week.

Above it, the short term target is the16.35 (38.2%) major Gann square. The longer term target area is the 17.58 major Gann square and 61.8% back to the contract high at 18.03. The long term target is 38.2% on the weekly continuation chart at 19.00.

Below it, the short term target is 78.6% on the weekly continuation chart at 13.40. A failure to turn higher from this area leaves us only major Gann squares to look for support and then use as the swing point when closed below, the next one is 12.37.

ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point

Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.

If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.

You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.

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