What are the Prospects for Palladium Prices?

Gold, silver, and platinum futures rose to record highs in January 2026, while palladium futures did not come close to their all-time high in 2022. I asked if palladium prices would continue to rise in a January 29, 2026, Barchart article, concluding with the following:

Palladium prices were already over $1,900 per ounce in late January 2026, up by over $250 per ounce from the December 2025 closing level. The trend is always a trader’s or investor’s best friend, and it remains higher in the palladium futures market, with lots of room before the price reaches the March 2022 all-time high. I remain bullish on palladium and expect higher highs over the coming months. However, periodic downdrafts, as the market experienced when palladium futures fell by over $300 per ounce on January 27, are likely. The higher precious metals prices rise, the greater the odds of violent selloffs, which could be golden buying opportunities. 

Nearby NYMEX palladium futures were $1,904 per ounce on January 27, and are over $675 lower on July 8, 2026. The selloff has been steady, with platinum moving to lower highs in each month from February through June 2026. 

Palladium’s bearish trend since early 2026

Nearby NYMEX palladium futures have formed lower highs and lower lows since reaching a high of $2,195.50 on January 26, 2026. 

The daily continuous contract chart shows that palladium futures plunged 47.3% from the January 26 high to the June 24, 2026, low of $1,156 per ounce. 

Palladium breaks below technical support levels

The monthly continuous contract chart shows that palladium futures fell 76.2% from the March 2022 $3,425 all-time high to a low of $813.50 in August 2024, where it found a bottom. 

The chart shows the 169.9% bounce that drove palladium futures to a high of $2,195.50 in January 2026. Palladium futures made a lower high and ran out of upside momentum at the January high. Technical support was at the October 2025 high of $1,695 and the July 2025 high of $1,373.50 per ounce. Palladium broke through both support levels on its way to the most recent June 2026 $1,156 low, and was below those support levels in July 2026. 

Gold, silver, and platinum price action should guide palladium

Palladium is the least liquid precious metal trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s COMEX and NYMEX divisions. While palladium futures tend to follow gold and silver futures prices, they are most closely correlated with platinum futures, as platinum and palladium are the leading platinum group metals, with characteristics that are both industrial and precious. 

NYMEX palladium futures dropped 47.3% from the January 2026 high to the most recent June 2026 low.

• COMEX gold futures declined 29.7% from the late January 2026 high to the June 2026 low.
• COMEX silver futures plunged 53.9% from the late January 2026 high to the June 2026 low.
• NYMEX platinum futures dropped 47.3% from the late January 2026 high to the July 2026 low. 

Ironically, palladium futures experienced the exact same percentage correction from the January highs as its sister metal, platinum. 

The bullish and bearish cases

The bullish case for palladium includes:

• Palladium is a rare precious metal with an annual production of around 190 metric tons.
• Russia and South Africa lead in platinum production with respective outputs of 84 and 70 tons, accounting for more than 81% of the world’s production.
• While palladium production in South Africa is from primary mines, Russian output is a byproduct of nickel production in Siberia’s Norilsk region.
• Palladium attracts less investment demand than the other precious metals. It is primarily an industrial metal with applications in the automobile, jewelry, hydrogen, medical, and other industrial sectors.
• Palladium is the least liquid of the four precious metals trading in the futures market. Lower liquidity increases the odds of higher price volatility when trends develop.
• While palladium has corrected from the January 2026 high, the price remains above the $1,000 per ounce pivot point, which was in place from late 2023 through mid-2025.

The bearish risks are:

• The geopolitical and economic landscapes remain highly uncertain in July 2026. A risk-off period in markets would likely push palladium’s price lower, along with the other precious metals.
• The trend since the late January 2026 high remains bearish, with palladium moving below two critical technical support levels.
• As Russia struggles to fund its war with Ukraine and its economy continues to slump, any strategic palladium stockpiles are subject to liquidation. Russia considers its strategic mineral and metal holdings a national security matter, so there is no publicly available data or insight into whether it holds a substantial palladium stockpile.
• In volatile markets, short-term events can push prices to levels that defy reasonable, rational, and logical technical and fundamental analysis. 

Palladium faces bullish and bearish factors pulling its price in opposite directions in July 2026. 

PALL is the palladium ETF

 The most direct route for investment in palladium is the physical market for bars and coins. However, since palladium is a rare metal, buying physical often involves significant premiums, while selling physical can entail discounts to the prevailing price. 

NYMEX futures have a delivery mechanism, but using futures requires specialized accounts that involve margin. The Aberdeen Physical Palladium ETF (PALL) tracks palladium futures prices by holding physical palladium bullion. PALL is available for standard equity accounts. At $22.32 per share, PALL had over $612.52 million in assets under management. It trades an average of more than one million shares per day, making it a liquid ETF. PALL charges a 0.60% management fee. 

Palladium futures rose 169.9% from $813.50 in August 2024 to $2,195.50 in January 2026. The futures then plunged 47.3% to a low of $1,156 in June 2026. 

The monthly chart shows that over the same period; PALL rose 154.7% from $15.50 to $39.48 per share and fell 47.1% to $20.90 per share in June 2026. 

PALL only trades during U.S. stock market hours, while palladium futures trade around the clock. Therefore, PALL can miss highs or lows in the volatile palladium futures market when the stock market is closed. 

The downside risk in palladium is likely around the $1,000 level with $20 support on the PALL ETF. Risk-reward favors the upside in the current environment, but the trend remains bearish in July 2026.