Grain Markets Trade Lower on Retaliatory Tariffs

Overnight Headlines 

• China slaps 10%-15% retaliatory levies on US agriculture exports
• Levies will affect about $21 billion in US exports
• Clamps export, investment controls on 25 U.S. firms
• Beijing still hopes for truce with Trump team, analysts say
• Tension risk worsening U.S. inflation, China recovery

Corn

Monday’s Recap
May Corn futures closed at a one month low of 456’2 Monday, lower by 13’2 or 2.82%. Combined volume came in at a one month high of 723,455, with May seeing a heavy 353,207 traded. Across all maturities, open interest dropped 27,763, or 1.47%, to 1,860,382. May fell 26,801 (3.21%), finishing at 807,286.

Technicals
Corn futures are putting together a real time demonstration of the old saying “escalator up, elevator down”. Prices are slicing through support pockets with ease as the selling and long liquidation continues to snowball. The sharp selloff has brought the RSI into oversold territory with a reading of 25.35. Our 4-star support pocket comes in from 442 1/4-443 3/4. Below that and there’s more air underneath prices which could take prices within reach of contract lows.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 461-463 3/4***, 481 1/2-484**, 499 1/2-503 1/2***
Pivot: 454 1/2-457 3/4
Support: 442 1/4-443 3/4****, 422-425***

Popular Options
The May 440 put saw the most changing hands with 10,002 contracts done. Option open interest is highest for the July 500 calls at 26,057, and the July 450 puts at 18,503.

Volatility Update
Implied Volatility closed sharply higher with CVL gaining 2.4, to end the session at a one month high of 24.43. Historical volatility (30-day) closed the day at 23.83%, adding 0.55%, to a one month high. The CVL Skew was sharply up with the 30-day higher by 0.7, ending the session at 0.82.

Read the Full article here: https://bluelinefutures.com/2025/03/04/grain-markets-trade-lower-on-retaliatory-tariffs/ 

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