What You Need to Know About Nvidia Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings

Nvidia's (NVDA) upcoming Q4 2025 earnings report is the main event on Wall Street this week, with analysts projecting revenues of $38.34 billion, representing a remarkable 73.5% year-over-year increase. Ahead of the event, NVDA stock has been under pressure, thanks to concerns about potential Trump administration restrictions on chip exports to China and uncertainties surrounding the Blackwell chip rollout timeline.

With Nvidia due to report quarterly results in just about 24 hours, here’s what Wall Street is expecting from the $3 trillion artificial intelligence (AI) giant.

What Are Analysts Saying About NVDA Earnings?

Bank of America maintains a bullish outlook with a $190 price target, supported by strong supply-demand indicators and expectations of doubled AI sales in 2025. Major cloud customers have increased their capital expenditure projections for 2025 by 30-40% to over $360 billion, suggesting robust demand for Nvidia's products. 

More recently, though, Microsoft's (MSFT) data center spending plans have drawn scrutiny, even as the hyperscaler reaffirmed its $80 billion capex commitment for 2025.

Deutsche Bank issued a more cautious outlook on Nvidia's upcoming quarterly guidance, citing limited upside potential and questions about sustained demand levels, though the company's dominant position in AI chips and strong margins continue to support its long-term prospects. 

Is Nvidia a Good AI Stock to Buy?

Already a leader in the industry, Nvidia’s data center business continues to demonstrate remarkable strength, driven by increasing adoption of cloud-based solutions and growing demand for generative AI applications. The company’s recent strategic moves - including an expanded collaboration with Cisco (CSCO) for AI networking solutions - reinforce Nvidia's market leadership position, despite the threat of cheap competition from Chinese rival DeepSeek. 

While execution challenges exist with the new Blackwell GPU rollout, Nvidia’s customers appear to be increasing H20 GPU orders to maintain AI computing capacity in the interim.

That said, even with NVDA trading down 15% from its January highs, it’s still not necessarily a bargain. Nvidia is trading at a premium valuation, with a forward 12-month price/sales (P/S) of 24.68x - well above the tech industry norm, as well as its own historical averages.  

What is the Options Market Pricing in for Nvidia Earnings?

With just one trading day left until Nvidia reports its Q4 earnings, the options market is pricing in a move of 8.86% in either direction. That’s roughly in line with the AI chip stock’s average post-earnings reaction of 8.22% over the past four quarters.

In the weekly Feb. 28 options series expiring after this Friday’s close, Nvidia speculators are favoring the out-of-the-money 135-strike call, with nearly 40,000 contracts in open interest - and another 47,000-plus traded today. On the put side, the out-of-the-money 120 strike is gaining in popularity on the in-the-money 130 strike; both options carry around 50,000 contracts in open interest.

Based on the market's expected price move, NVDA is expected to land between $139.17 and $116.51 after earnings.