Only One Rate Cut Expected in 2025? ETFs to Play

Morgan Stanley MS has adjusted its forecast for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, now expecting a single 25 basis point (bps) reduction this year, per Reuters, as quoted on Yahoo Finance. This is in line with projections from Barclays (BCS) and Macquarie. Previously, Morgan Stanley had anticipated two 25 bps cuts in March and June.

While Morgan Stanley, Barclays, and Macquarie now foresee just one rate cut, other financial institutions, including Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo, continue to predict two cuts in 2024.

Impact of Tariff Policy on Inflation

Analysts at Morgan Stanley attribute the latest revision to uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policy, which is expected to drive inflation higher. This inflationary pressure could keep the Federal Reserve's from easing monetary policy generously.

Morgan Stanley analysts believe that even if tariffs are avoided, their potential impact increases uncertainty around personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation, keeping inflationary risks skewed to the upside.

Current Inflation and Fed Policy

Recent data showed the PCE price index for December aligned with market expectations. Meanwhile, at its January policy meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate within the 4.25%-4.50% range. However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that future rate cuts would depend on further progress in reducing persistently high inflation.

ETFs to Win

The benchmark U.S. treasury yields hit as high as 4.79% in mid-January. However, the yield slumped to 4.52% on Feb. 4, 2025 as the tariff war boosted the safe-haven demand of the U.S. treasury bonds to some extent and resultantly drove down bond yields.

Against this backdrop, below we highlight a few high-yield exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that could be gainful to investors as long as the rates remain on the higher side.

Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (VYM)

The underlying FTSE High Dividend Yield Index which is consists of common stocks of companies that pay dividends that generally are higher than average. The ETF charges 6 bps in fees and yields 2.64% annually.

Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN)

The Morningstar LSTA US Leveraged Loan 100 Index tracks the market-weighted performance of the largest institutional leveraged loans based on market weightings, spreads and interest payments. The ETF charges 65 bps in fees and yields 8.35% annually.

Global X Nasdaq 100 Covered Call ETF (QYLD)

The underlying CBOE NASDAQ-100 BuyWrite V2 Index measures the total return of a portfolio consisting of common stocks of the 100 companies included on the NASDAQ-100 Index and call options systematically written on those securities through a buy-write or covered call strategy. The fund charges 61 bps in fees and yields 12.33% annually.

JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF (JEPI)

The JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF seeks current income while maintaining prospects for capital appreciation. The ETF’s equity portfolio employs a time-tested, bottom-up fundamental research process with stock selection based on our proprietary risk-adjusted stock rankings. Disciplined options overlay implements written out-of-the-money S&P 500 Index call options that seek to generate distributable monthly income. The fund charges 35 bps in fees and yields 7.24% annually.

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