Live Cattle (February)
Cattle futures were choppy in Friday’s trade, leaving the technical landscape little changed with a trade that took place within the previous day’s range. Our pivot pocket from 195.72-196.00 sill be the pocket for the Bulls to defend. A failure here and we could see some long liquidation press prices back down to significant support from 192.00-192.70.
Resistance: 199.57-200.00***
Pivot: 195.72–196.00
Support: 194.40-194.85***, 192.00-192.70***
Daily Cattle and Beef Summary
Cutout values were lower on Friday with choice cuts .53 lower to 333.16 and select cuts .39 lower to 319.44. Friday’s slaughter was reported at 115k head, 2k less than the previous week but 4k more than the same day last year. The 5-area average price for live steers came in at 203.67
The CME feeder Cattle Index is down 1.25 to 277.06 with the NBW Real-Time Index showing 276.50 as of this morning, down .30 from yesterday.
Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 1.21.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for April futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 4k contracts, expanding their net long position to 147,421. Within a stone’s throw of the record 152,634.
Feeder Cattle (March)
Feeder cattle have been choppy over the last week, trading in about a $5 range from 265ish-270ish. A breakout above or below this recent range could spark another leg in that direction. With Funds very lopsided long, the higher velocity risk is likely on a breakdown below support.
There have been multiple reports out of Mexico regarding the boarder reopening for cattle trade, but we have yet to see any definitive statement from the USDA>
Resistance: 270.05-271.00*
Pivot: 266.75-267.75
Support: 263.00-263.27**, 260.075-260.70****
Seasonal Tendency Update
(updated 1.21.25)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Report
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net buyers of about 2.500 contracts, expanding their net long position to another new record, 28,749. The 3-year chart of fund positioning below speaks for itself.
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