Grain Markets Retreat Overnight

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Soybeans

Technicals
In recent reports we outlined that the technical failure against our 4-star resistance pocket (1055-1062 1/2) could lead to some profit taking from recent buyers. Today the market is working on its third day lower, which erases Monday’s rally and brings the market back near previous resistance and the breakout point from last week ,1021 3/4-1028. From a risk/reward perspective, this may be a shot to look long. The Bulls need to defend this pocket though to keep the recent trend of higher highs and higher lows going. A failure to do so could put prices right back near that technically and psychically significant $10 handle.

Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 1055-1062 1/2****, 1097 1/4-1101****
Pivot: 1033 1/2
Support: 1021 3/4-1028***, 1003-1008 1/4***

Fundamental Notes

Soybean Crush

The monthly U.S. soybean crush jumped to the highest on record in December as several new processing plants have come online in recent months, according to National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) data released on Wednesday.

NOPA members, which account for at least 95% of U.S.-processed soybeans, crushed 206.604 million bushels of the oilseed last month, up 6.9% from the 193.185 million bushels crushed in November and up 5.8% from the December 2023 crush of 195.328 million bushels.

Argentina Production Update

In a report, the exchange said it also sees 2024/25 soybean production below its previous forecast of between 53 million and 53.5 million tons, but the institution did not specify a figure. It noted that the lack of rain that has affected Argentina’s agricultural core for the past month will affect soybean yields and has made them rule out “the high productivity scenarios that were considered until recently.”

While the exchange forecasted precipitation in the coming days, it expects the accumulated rainfall to be very moderate.

Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 1.13.25)

Below is a look at historical price averages for January soybean futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).

Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 1.14.25 )

Managed Money reduced their net short position to just 28,612 contracts. Keep in mind that this data doesn’t include Friday’s or Monday’s trade, they are likely back to net long for the first time since December 26th 2023.
 

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