Hotter Payrolls & Inflation Jitters Hit E-mini S&P & NQ: Key Levels to Watch This Week

Bill Baruch joined the CNBC Halftime Report on Friday from the NYSE to cover Nonfarm Payroll data and his latest moves.

E-mini S&P (March) / E-mini NQ (March)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 5866.25, down 93.00 on Friday and 123.25 on the week

NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 21,016.00, down 344.75 on Friday and 500.50 on the week

On Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls came in hotter than expected at 256k versus 164k, sending the 10-year yield to 4.8%, the highest since November 1, 2023. Later Friday morning, Michigan Consumer data showed a surprise jump in 1-year inflation expectations to 3.3%, the highest since June. The Michigan data is known to be very politically motivated, so we are watching the NY Fed 1-year Inflation Expectations release at 10:00 am CT. Fed Fund futures have further priced out rate cuts, with the CME FedWatch Tool now only showing 25bps of cuts through 2025 with a 71% probability and 50bps with a 30.4% probability.

E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures sold off immediately following the number and were tagged again upon the opening bell Friday. There is a tremendous amount of damage overhead, and the gap down on today’s opening bell will leave strong resistance aligning with Friday’s settlement (detailed below). This leaves two gaps, including Wednesday’s settlement, in which the market must clear in order to have repaired this damage. To the downside, the bulls must defend a significant area of support in the E-mini S&P at…

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