Dangerous Heat and Screwworm Cases Mean Cattle Prices Are Still Bullish. Hog Prices Need a Kick Higher.

August live cattle futures on Friday fell $1.40 to $245.825 and for the week were down 80 cents. August feeder cattle futures lost $3.45 to $369.825 and for the week were up $3.25.The cattle futures markets saw some profit-taking on Friday, led by feeders.

Front and center for the cattle markets and the entire U.S. cattle industry is the New World screwworm (NWS) parasite that has been detected in the southern U.S. As of this morning, NWS cases detected in U.S. had risen to 27— all in Texas and New Mexico, with the newest two cases in Texas. There are presently 21 active cases, all in Texas.

In the meantime, the U.S. and Mexico inaugurated a sterile fly plant in Chiapas over the weekend. The plant will eventually produce up to 100 million sterile flies a week, Reuters reported. The U.S. has mostly closed its border to Mexican live cattle imports since May 2025. More than 30,000 animals in Mexico have been infected by the parasite. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins attended the opening of the facility in Metapa de Dominguez, near the Guatemala border. The plant, a joint U.S.-Mexico project, cost over $50 million. The facility in Metapa, which is within Chiapas, is expected to produce up to 100 million sterile flies a week, and combined with an existing facility in Panama, comes closer to the 500 million a week figure that helped eradicate the pest from North America decades ago. The U.S. has pledged an additional $84 million to stop the screwworm’s spread, warning that a major outbreak could cost the U.S. agriculture sector more than $700 million each year. 

So far, the NWS news has favored the bullish cattle futures camp, due to supply concerns. However, the cattle bulls are also worried that consumer psychology regarding buying beef at the meat counter could get dented because of the parasite and its gruesome effects on infected animals.

Dangerous heat that is building across the central U.S. is likely to stress cattle and hogs in the region the rest of this week. The National Weather Service today said that dangerous heat with temperatures in the 90s and lower 100s across will envelope much of central and eastern U.S. The combination of high humidity values will produce heat indexes between 105-115 degrees across portions of the southern Plains.

Cash cattle trading was still very light as of midday Friday, with the USDA reporting very light trading at $260.00. That compares to the prior week’s USDA-reported cash cattle trading average of $259.63. The agency will update last week’s average cash cattle trading price at midday today.

Boxed beef values had surged recently, until Friday, with Choice edging above the $400.00 level for a time, which spurred slightly firmer cash sales in early trade last week. Feeder futures continued to lead the charge with NWS at the forefront of the marketplace. Beef processors remain focused on reducing slaughter volumes as margins remain under pressure, although feedlots will hold leverage in cash negotiations in the near term as fed supplies remain tight.

The major U.S. stock indexes have wobbled after hitting record highs in early June. That could be negative for consumer confidence. However, gasoline prices at the pump have dropped below $4.00 a gallon, on average, which will likely offset the negative implications of a slumping stock market. Significantly lower gasoline prices at the pump likely mean better demand for beef at the meat counter in the coming months.

Lean Hog Futures Bulls Work to Stabilize Prices

August lean hog (HEQ26) futures on Friday fell $0.025 to $96.575 and for the week were down 15 cents. The hog futures market bulls last week stabilized the market and are keeping alive a fledgling price uptrend on the daily bar chart.

USDA’s quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report released last Thursday leaned slightly price-friendly, showing the U.S. hog herd at 73.664 million head as of June 1, down 33,000 head, or 0.04%, from a year ago and 696,000 head less than the average pre-report guess. Market hog inventories rose 36,000 head, or 0.1%, while the breeding herd shrank 1.2% from a year ago. The spring pig crop was up 8,000 head, virtually flat, despite a 1% reduction in farrowings thanks to a 1% rise in pigs per litter to a record 11.87 head.

The latest CME lean hog index is down 7 cents to $91.78. Today’s projected CME index price is down 23 cents at $91.55. The national direct five-day rolling average cash hog price quote for Friday was $97.47.

Struggling cash hog and pork market fundamentals, and persistent technical pressure, have kept momentum from building in lean hog futures. Plentiful pork supplies also continue to limit buyer interest in lean hog futures. Unlike cattle, hogs are in a gradual supply growth and productivity-driven expansion, helping to keep hog futures under pressure.

Reduced feed costs are likely to encourage hog herd expansion over time, placing an increased focus on both exports and domestic demand. Potential for higher-for-longer beef prices at the meat counter could result in better consumer demand for pork into 2027.

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