Wheat
Wednesday’s Recap
March Wheat futures ended the session at a contract low of 541’2 Wednesday, losing 3’6. Across all maturities, volume was 95,662, with the March contract seeing 63,252 change hands. Overall open interest increased by 955 (0.21%), with March up by 344, or 0.13%, to 259,349.
Technicals
March wheat futures rallied out of the gates early yesterday but that quickly ran out of gas as the market reversed and finished near the lows of the session. That bearish reversal has led to additional weakness overnight with new contract lows being posted. The RSI is now in oversold territory with a reading of 27.9. We’ve seen in at and a little lower than these levels back in November. When the market did come up for air it was about a 30-cent relief rally, before resuming the downtrend.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 560 1/2**, 574 1/2-577 1/2***
Pivot: 549-552 1/2
Support: 540-542***, 520 3/4***
Fundamental Headlines
- European Union production of soft wheat could rise 11% in 2025/26 in a rebound from a 12-year low this season when the harvest was slashed by repeated heavy rain, consultancy Strategie Grains said. In its first production forecasts for next season, the firm projected output of soft wheat, the EU’s main cereal crop, at 126.6 million metric tons, up from 114.2 million in 2024/25.-Reuters
- Weekly Export Sales Estimates: 275,000-600,000. Last week’s report came in at 290,200 metric tons
Popular Options
Option volumes were greatest for the March 600 call (1,136) and the Jan 540 put (1,789). Calls with the greatest open interest are the March 700 strike (15,043), and for the puts are the Jan 540 strike (4,873).
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility closed the day moderately up with WVL higher by 0.9, to end at a one week high of 25.47. Historical volatility (30-day) settled at nan%, unchanged on the session nan%. The WVL Skew was moderately up with the 30-day higher by 0.48, closing the session at a one week high of 6.02.
Seasonal Tendencies Update
(Updated on 12.16.24)
Below is a look at historical price averages for March wheat futures on a 5, 10, 15, 20, and 30 year time frames (Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results).
Commitment of Traders Update
(Updated on 12.16.24)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Fund positioning little changed from the previous week, coming in at a net short 66,779 contracts.
Ready to dig in?
Subscribe to our daily Grain Express for fresh insights into Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn. Get our expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered right to your inbox.
Sign Up for Free Futures Market Research – Blue Line Futures
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Performance Disclaimer
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
/Apple%20logo%20on%20store%20front%20by%20frantic00%20via%20iStock.jpg)
