Live Cattle, Lean HogsÂ
(LEZ24) (HEZ24) (LEG25) (HEG25)Â
Educational
The chart below is key to this analysis.
There are two methods we use at ONE44 to find support and resistance in the markets.
The first are major Gann squares, these are the yellow horizontal lines on the chart. On the chart you can see where the market turned multiple times at these levels.
The second is Fibonacci retracements and this is what most of this post will be about.
There are a few basic rules when using the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
This is the short version.
A 38.2% level keeps the trend intact and new highs/lows should follow.
A 23.6% level shows the market is extremely strong, or weak.
A 61.8% level can cause wide swings and keep the market in a trading range.
A 78.6% level can send it 78.6% of where it just came from and even be the end or start of a Bull market.
Actionable
Cattle
This is the last update for December
From last week,
The short term target of 38.2% at 183.50 held for the first part of the week, but failed to get a rally going, it is currently under this level and it will be key for the next week.
Use 183.50 as the swing point for the week.
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Above it, provided it can get right back above it, the longer term target is the 191.86 major Gann square. The short term target is 78.6% back to the 10/29/24 at 188.20, a failure to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the end of the Bull move for now. Any rally that can't get back above the 185.29 major Gann square is a very negative sign and a new low can quickly follow.
It got back above 38.2% at 183.50 on Monday and so far has rallied $3.00 and closed above the 185.29 major Gann square, this will be key for the next week.
Use 185.29 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 10/29/24 at 188.20, a failure to make a new high in the area of a 78.6% retracement can be the end of the Bull move for now. The long term target is the 191.86 major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target is a retest of 38.2% at 183.50. The long term target is 78.6% the other way at 177.00 based on the ONE44 78.6% rule, (after getting back below 78.6% at 187.70).
Lean Hogs
This will be the last update for December.
From last week,
The trade below 80.77 held above 23.6% at 79.70, but the rally failed to make a new high and it is currently below 80.77. Without a new high, or low the levels will be the same for the next week.
Use 80.77 as the swing point for the week again.
It was a tight range for the week with most of it between 80.77 and 23.6% at 79.70. Without being able to take out 79.70 this level will be key for the next week.
Use 79.70 as the swing point for the week.
Above it, the short term target is 78.6% back to the 11/1/24 high at 83.70, a failure to make a new high in this area could be the end of the rally for now and a quick break can follow.. The long term target is the 89.12 major Gann square.
Below it, the short term target area is the 76.67 major Gann square and 38.2% back to the 7/15/24 low at 76.40. The long term target is 78.6% of the same move at 66.90 based on the fact that the 11/1/24 high hit 78.6%.
We have done 44 videos on how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines. These Videos are worth watching even if it is not in the market you are trading, as the ONE44 rules and guidelines are the same for every market. You will also see why we believe the Fibonacci retracements are the underlying structure of ALL markets.
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ONE44 Analytics where the analysis is concise and to the point
Our goal is to not only give you actionable information, but to help you understand why we think this is happening based on pure price analysis with Fibonacci retracements, that we believe are the underlying structure of all markets and Gann squares.
If you like this type of analysis and trade the Grain/Livestock futures you can become a Premium Member.
You can also follow us on YouTube for more examples of how to use the Fibonacci retracements with the ONE44 rules and guidelines.
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FULL RISK DISCLOSURE: Futures trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Commission Rule 4.41(b)(1)(I) hypothetical or simulated performance results have certain inherent limitations. Unlike an actual performance record, simulated results do not represent actual trading. Also, since the trades have not actually been executed, the results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
On the date of publication, Nick Ehrenberg did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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