“Shootin’ The Bull”
End of Day Market Recap
by Christopher Swift
10/28/2024
Live Cattle:
Futures traders continue hold the line. In all honesty, they have to. Speculators and funds have piled on new positions last week in an approximate $3.00 range. At the same time, it is believed cattle feeders marketed inventory within that $3.00 range. For the speculator/fund, the price has to go up, or they will lose money on the position. For the cattle feeder, they have simply adjusted risk assumption. Who do you wish to assume your risk, you or the market? At what levels are you comfortable marketing at with the ability to live with the consequences of your decisions? These are about the only two questions I know to ask. If you can answer them, you are way ahead of others.
Feeder Cattle:
Cattle feeders have done themselves no favors as of recently. The spread between starting feeder and finished fat is widening again. October has been a month for consolidation of futures prices. November tends to be a soft month for feeder cattle prices seasonally. Continuation of the drought is expected to see inventory continue to move at a more elevated pace than last year. Futures traders continue to be willing buyers of your risk. I recommend you let them.
Hogs:
Hog futures are in a grind higher. Why, I have no idea, as the index has barely moved.
Corn:
Grains and oilseeds were lower. All appear to be resuming down trends. Wheat especially, in a very contradictory move to my analysis.
Energy:
While not a black swan, but maybe some reserve shown by the Israel's to not bomb the oil production facilities of Iran. The build up to the bombings had energy close at the highs on Friday, but potentially cooler heads prevailed in not pushing energy up 10 to 20 percent over night. Nonetheless, I continue to expect energy to trade higher with recommendations to top off farm tanks, book fuel, forward contract fuel, or buy call options on crude oil. This is a sales solicitation. This is a large one day percentage move in crude and the products. If you were sluggish in getting some energy booked, it is not a fire sale, but it is lower.
Bonds:
Bonds are lower. The US dollar made another new high in this rally. The financials are most interesting with the massive reversals seen from the Fed's action of cutting rates. The dollar, thought to be losing its reserve currency status, has soared, and bonds, where we thought the consumer needed a little help, produced just the opposite to them, higher interest rates. So, to say I am a little confused, along with the presidential election a week from Tuesday, is not much of an exaggeration.
This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation. An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of the margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
On the date of publication, Chris Swift did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
/Amazon%20-%20Image%20by%20bluestork%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)
/Salesforce%20Inc%20HQ%20building-by%20JHVEPhoto%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)
/Semiconductor%20close%20up%20by%20Yosi%20Azwan%20via%20iStock.jpg)
