Emini S&P futures, were you getting ready to join the sellers into the election on Friday?

If you were following the price action after hitting the ES, NQ buy buttons early you were likely very frustrated if you had bought and walked away on what appeared to be a gap up and go type of day. The economic calendar with the UoM Consumer Sentiment index helped the initial bid which ran out of steam as 3 of 4 indices fell and only the tech heavy Nasdaq closed in the green. What gives? Why did the environment turn sour on the flip of a dime for lack of a better phrase on Friday? I am thinking traders are getting cautious ahead of a very big week ahead of us in terms of earnings and economic data in the form of Jolts, Core PCE and monthly Jobs data all grouped in together in a single week.

Our opinion remains, stop panicking ahead of the elections. It is going to be OK as long as we are holding 5805~5773. While falling below 5805 will likely initiate some panic for short-term swing participants who are long the market, I believe holding that lower price point of 5773 is critical and will play an important part in a retest of 5900. Last Friday, the small head pop above 5900 generated some selling in a “not so fast” theme as profit takers stepped in. However, this week I am thinking the buyers will exert more pressure and will likely prevail. Our initial profit target for this move remains at 5962.50 as depicted in the following chart: https://tradeguidance.com/newsletters/es-10-27-24/. The cash market tells a compelling story as you will see from the chart below wherein support at 5790 area is still strong and has the ability to deliver 5927 into the end of the upcoming week.

(ESZ24) 

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