“Shootin’ The Bull”
End of Day Market Recap
by Christopher Swift
10/24/2024
Live Cattle:
The rationing of beef is believed starting to have an impact on box price. Sending beef prices up 8% in just a couple of weeks seemingly put the breaks on retailers bidding up supplies. I view the current situation as treading water. Whether you are a consumer, producer, packer, or retail grocer, the current economic and world situation, when combined with a new or the same administration, there are concerns for the consumer and how much more resilience they have to the higher prices. With recommendations already having been made, and about $3.00 to $4.00 fluctuation in price over the past few weeks, there isn't a great deal to do that I can see.
Feeder Cattle:
Feeder cattle futures were volatile, but with the index lower, about all that transpired was further convergence of basis. I know some are chomping at the bit for a move higher or lower to justify actions taken. With recommendations that are believed sufficient in protecting the down side, with a predetermined upside potential available, there isn't much reason to be chomping at the bit, unless you are in a position that you can't live with the consequences of your decisions. The drought issues were pushed front and center by Corbitt Wall this morning. Drought will most likely move cattle when not desired, creating gluts in some places and holes in others. On the front end, were a 4th quarter liquidation take place, beef production would be expected to remain elevated beyond April of next year. Until cattle feeders can begin to push the index above $261.88, the top is believed in with an initial decline complete and the correction believed near, if not already. Next most probable move on feeder cattle is to the downside.
Hogs:
Hogs were lower with the index up $.32 at $84.66.
Corn:
Grains perked up a little, but not by much. Grains are believed forming a sideways pattern. Wheat is still desired to be owned, due to the drought situation and seemingly a growing percentage of wheat that came up, but now dying. Other than that, not much took place or is expected to. I was asked if I were correct on energy, would that have an impact on corn and or bean oil? Yes, to an extent, but most likely not until a much higher price for fuel was seen.
Energy:
Energy closed lower after making a new high in this rally from the 10/18 low. Traders posted a significant outside reversal today with the higher trade above and below Wednesday's. Were this at the top of a market or bottom, I would lay a lot more weight on this being a reversal. With the move in crude being sideways, I believe it to be a flush of longs before moving the market higher. On Wednesday evening, I presented to subscribers a comment and trade recommendations on crude that are intended to turn a variable cost into a fixed cost. If you would like a copy of this, drop me an email and I will reply with it. I expect energy to trade higher.
Bonds:
Bonds were able to trade plus on the day, but not by any leaps or bounds. Inflation continues, the Fed wants to stimulate, and debt is plaguing the government, with consumer credit card debt a new historical high. Comments from Rick Santelli's video on Wednesday were well received. Today's may not be as welcome, but it appears fact, so welcome to our administration giving more money away. Article HERE.
This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation. An investment in futures contracts is speculative, involves a high degree of risk and is suitable only for persons who can assume the risk of loss in excess of the margin deposits. You should carefully consider whether futures trading is appropriate for you in light of your investment experience, trading objectives, financial resources and other relevant circumstances. PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.
On the date of publication, Chris Swift did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
/Cisco%20Systems%2C%20Inc_%20HQ-by%20Sundry%20Photography%20via%20iStock.jpg)
