Corn
Friday’s Recap
Corn futures were lower Friday with the Dec contract finishing the session at 404’6, down by 2’0. Overall volume was 339,200, with the Dec maturity seeing 193,538 done. Total open interest finished the day at a one month high of 1,599,029, gaining 1,277, or 0.0799%. Dec open interest decreased 3,761 (0.50%), to 751,371.
Technicals
December corn futures look promising early in Friday’s trade, but that strength gave way as prices retreated to finish the session near the lows, erasing the gains and optimism from Thursday’s reversal. The market opened slightly lower last night but prices have found their footing to bring prices back into our pivot pocket from 406 1/2-408 1/2. If the Bulls can achieve a close above this pocket, we see 413-416 as the next upside objective.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 413-416, 425-426 1/2
Pivot:406 1/2-408 1/2
Support: 397-401 1/4****
Popular Options
The Nov 400 put saw the most traded with 6,104 contracts done. Calls with the most open interest are the Dec 430 strike (30,049), and for the puts are the Dec 400 strike (34,402).
Volatility Update
Implied Volatility ended the session higher with CVL adding 0.34, to close the day at a one week high of 20.05. The 30-day historical volatility closed adding 0.0433% to 17.70%. The CVL Skew finished moderately down, losing 0.07 to end the session at 0.77.
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed what we all assumed, and that is that Funds were piling back in on the short side through October 15th. The weekly CoT report showed Funds were net sellers of about 72.5k contracts, expanding their net short position to 107,448. Most of the selling was new shorts (58.5k contracts).
Soybeans
Friday’s Recap
Jan Soybean futures closed at a one month low of 982’6 Friday, off by 15’2 or 1.53%. Overall, a heavy 486,381 contracts changed hands, with 154,632 traded in Jan. Across all maturities, open interest fell 4,930, or 0.51%, to end the session with 954,699 outstanding. The Jan maturity gained 1.87% (4,930) to finish at 287,278.
Technicals
November soybeans got taken to the woodshed on Friday which had many thinking we’d see continued weakness to start this week’s trade. Though we saw a slightly softer open, futures have managed to stabilize into the early morning trade. The Bulls will want to see consecutive closes back above 972 3/4-975 to help keep the hopes of a low being in alive. A failure to do so leaves the door open for a retest of the lows and potentially lower, that comes in from 955-957 1/4.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 995 3/4-1001 1/4, 1010-1011 1/2
Pivot: 972 3/4-975
Support: 955-957 1/4****
Popular Options
Option trading centered around the Nov 1020 calls with 6,025 traded and the Nov 970 puts with volume of 7,860. Option open interest is largest for the Nov 1040 calls at 19,190, and the Nov 1040 puts at 19,237.
Volatility Update
As measured by SVL, implied volatility finished sharply up, higher by 1.5 to settle at a one month high of 22.15. The 30-day historical volatility ended the session off 0.41% to a one month low of 17.12%. The SVL Skew was sharply lower with the 30-day off 0.51, finishing at a one week low of 0.55.
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed Funds were net sellers of about 27k futures/options contracts through October 15th. The net short position as of Friday’s report stands at -40,488.
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Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
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