WASDE Recap and Ag Day TV Interview
Oliver Sloup joined Ag Day TV on Friday afternoon to share his thoughts on the WASDE report and price action in the Ag markets.
Corn
Technicals
December corn futures are threatening the lower end of our support pocket from 413-416. A break and close below this pocket could trigger additional technical pressure down to our next support pocket from 406 1/2-408 1/2. On the resistance side, the Bulls all of a sudden have their work cut out for them. The first hurdle comes in from 418-419 1/4 but the mores significant resistance pocket is from 425-426 1/2.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 425-426 1/2,
Pivot:418-419 1/4
Support: 413-416, 406 1/2-408 1/2, 397-401 1/4*
Commitment of Traders Update
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds were net buyers of roughly 44k futures/options contracts, nearly all of which was short covering. That shrinks their net short position to just 23,729, the smallest net short since August 2023.
Seasonal Tendencies
Historically the first half of October has provided support to corn futures, what many analysts refer to as a “harvest low”. By the time we get closer to and into November, some of that strength starts to dwindle away. Will we see similar action this year? TBD.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Wheat
Technicals
December Chicago wheat had a choppy trade on Friday but were able to hold ground. Prices were weaker overnight but have rebounded back to our pivot pocket from 596-600. The Bulls will want to keep prices above this pocket to keep the momentum in their favor. Significant support from 582 3/4-584 1/4 remains intact. A break and close below their puts the Bears back in the driver’s seat.
Technical Levels of Importance
Resistance: 615-617 1/2, 629 1/2-634, 648 1/4-650*
Pivot: 596-600
Support: 582 3/4-584 1/4, 573 3/4, 546-565 3/4
Commitment of Traders Update
There hasn’t been a whole lot of excitement in the Commitment of Traders over the last month, and last week was no different. Funds are net short about 29.5k futures/options contracts.
Seasonal Tendencies
Seasonal tendencies suggest a weaker back half of the month with the potential for December futures to drift lower through the remainder of the contract’s life. We’ve been upbeat on wheat over the last month or so, but this does dampen our near-term optimism and might be a sign to start playing tighter defense.
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Ready to dig in?
Subscribe to our daily Grain Express for fresh insights into Soybeans, Wheat, and Corn. Get our expert technical analysis, proprietary trading levels, and actionable market bias delivered right to your inbox.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.
With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500
Performance Disclaimer
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.
One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
On the date of publication, Oliver Sloup did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
/Amazon%20-%20Image%20by%20bluestork%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)
/Salesforce%20Inc%20HQ%20building-by%20JHVEPhoto%20via%20Shutterstock.jpg)
/Semiconductor%20close%20up%20by%20Yosi%20Azwan%20via%20iStock.jpg)