Shootin' the Bull about wave 5 of 5 of B

“Shootin’ The Bull”

by Christopher B Swift

2/18/2026

Live Cattle:

Today's mid-day cattle comment was short, as this one will be.  Packers and cattle feeders are already in negative margins with projected margins for cattle feeders worse.  Projected negative margins now reach deep into the feeder cattle market as spreads between calves & stockers to the feeder cattle market continues to widen. I believe wave 5 of 5 of the B wave is complete or near so enough to warrant these recommendations.  

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I recommend you pick a price for which you can live with not making any more money on your cattle. Then, buy the at the money put and sell the out of the money call at the strike price you can live with not making any more money.  This is a sales solicitation.

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A question was posed that stated, "what if none of the futures prices are breakeven or profitable?"  Then you have already assumed significant risk with only a higher price to become profitable, leading to, if it is bad already, imagine how bad it could be.  

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Feeder Cattle:

No difference in the feeder market.  A 5 wave move at the tip of a near 97% recovery of futures and 99.7% recovery of the FC index, leads me to take action.  

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I recommend you pick a price that you can live with not being able to make any more money on the cattle and then proceed to buy the at the money put and sell the out of the money call at the strike price you can live with.  This is a sales solicitation. 

​Corn:

Corn steady, wheat a little higher and beans a little softer made for a very uneventful day in grain and oilseed trading.  Bean oil though continues to move higher, making new contract highs today.  I recommend maintaining long positions in the bean oil.  

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Energy:​

​Energy blew out the top today.  Sunday night, through Tuesday's close saw price action that took out the top first and then the bottom.  As of around the reopening on Tuesday evening, prices started up and have not stopped as I write this.  This is perceived as a break out to the upside, but neither diesel fuel or crude have made a new high.  Note that diesel fuel is the leader of this rally with crude running a close second.  Gasoline is believed being used to help spread the energy by shorting gasoline and buying crude or diesel.  Regardless, diesel fuel up over $.13 in one day is a pretty good start to what is anticipated to be higher prices. I recommend you top off farm tanks and book portions of fuel needs for spring planting.  ​​

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Bonds:

​Bonds softened a little.  The loose monetary policies of the US and China is expected to lead to more inflation, and with energy now having a spark under it, commodity inflation could be a major factor to contend with going forward.  Note the metals market pushed the Commodity Indices higher, but have tapered off.  A resurgence of metal buying, coupled with higher energy, a large percentage of the indices, has the potential to make a new high in the commodity indices.  All of which begs the question, "Do cattle and beef appreciate with the inflation, or are they hampered by?"​​

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I showed a chart of the March S&P mini futures.  It is the stagnation of the market that is believed the reason for the heavy stimulation and desire of lower rates by the President to keep enough money pumped into the system so the stock market doesn't go down. Over a 120 billion will be injected into the system in short term instruments this week and into next.  

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​​​​​​ “This is intended to be or is in the nature of a solicitation.”  Futures trading is not for everyone. The risk of loss in trading futures can be substantial; therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and there is no assurance that your trading experience will be similar to the past performance.