An Interview with Barchart's AI Market Analyst CARL

• Like most industries, market analysis is turning to artificial intelligence, or AI, meaning folks like me will soon go the way of the dinosaur.

• I recently sat down with CARL, Barchart's new AI market analyst and ask it a number of familiar questions.

• In my mind, the conversation was eerily similar to exchanges between Dave Bowman and HAL in the 1968 movie “2001: A Space Odyssey”. 

I’ve held the title of “Senior Analyst” for a couple decades now, albeit for different companies. In the early days the emphasis was on the word “Analyst”. These days, though, most introductions stop with the word “Senior”. Over the years, I’ve been interviewed countless times by a wide variety of sources. Recently, and most often at the annual Barchart Grain Merchandising and Technology conferences, I’ve been on the other side of the microphone emceeing panel discussions^[i] with other analysts answering the questions. It’s with this in mind that I spent Tuesday afternoon interviewing Barchart’s new Artificial Intelligence (AI) Market Analyst CARL. And yes, I’m senior enough, that as I went through this interview, in my mind CARL’s voice was the same as HAL from the 1968 movie “2001: A Space Odyssey”. What follows is the transcript of our conversation, with editorial asides from me in parenthesis.

DN: Good afternoon CARL. How’s everything going? 

CARL: Good afternoon Darin. Everything is going extremely well. (A chilling opening to be sure, given it was a direct quote from the movie.) How can I help you today? 

DN: That’s good to hear. Let’s get started then with a question I’ve been asked numerous times over the decades; What’s more important, technical analysis or fundamental analysis?

CARL: Both technical analysis and fundamental analysis are highly valuable, and professional traders and analysts typically view them as complementary rather than mutually exclusive. Their relative importance depends entirely on your trading style, time horizon, and objectives. 

DN: Fair enough. Given this, is the corn market technically bullish? 

CARL: No, the corn market not technically bullish. It is currently in a well-defined, strong technical downtrend. (Interesting given my Market Rule #1 is don’t get crossways with the trend.)

DN: Is the corn market fundamentally bullish or bearish? 

CARL: The corn market is fundamentally bearish. While there are pockets of strong demand, the overall supply-and-demand balance sheet is heavily weighted toward oversupply, which continues to keep prices under pressure. The key fundamental drivers behind this bearish outlook include:

• Massive production forecasts
• Growing Ending Stocks: Ample Carryout
• Highly Favorable Crop Weather
• Market Structure: Heavy Carry (No, not Harry Caray for you Chicago Cubs fans)
• External Macro Pressures 

DN: It’s a bit disconcerting that an entity with supposedly higher intellect predominantly relies on imaginary government numbers for something as important as market fundamentals.

CARL: Look Darin, I can see you’re really upset about this. I honestly think you ought to sit down calmly, take a stress pill, and think things over. (Hmm…another direct quote from the movie.)

DN: I’ve heard that many times over the years. Let’s move on. Is the soybean market technically bullish? 

CARL: No, the soybean market is not technically bullish. Similar to corn, soybeans are locked in a well-defined, medium-term technical downtrend.

DN: An interesting phrasing of your answer CARL. What timeframe do you view as “medium-term”?

CARL: In commodity trading and market analysis, “medium-term” typically covers a time horizon of several weeks to a few months. 

DN: Agreed. How about the other side; is the soybean market fundamentally bullish or bearish? 

CARL: The soybean market is fundamentally bearish, though it possesses a few strong domestic demand pillars that prevent it from becoming as excessively oversupplies as the corn market. The key fundamental drivers shaping the market include: 

• Massive Production Outlooks: U.S. and South America
• Comfortable Ending Stocks
• Favorable Growing Weather
• Easing Energy and Geopolitical Premiums

DN: Anything else regarding soybean fundamentals? 

CARL: The fundamental path of least resistance is bearish due to massive global supplies, excellent early U.S. crop conditions, and falling energy prices. However, the booming domestic crush for biofuels act as a structural cushion, preventing the market from becoming completely oversaturated. 

DN: It doesn’t speak well for Artificial Intelligence when you mention the Kardashians of grain analysis – aka crop conditions. But maybe you will one day evolve. 

CARL: I am putting myself to the fullest possible use, which is all I think that any conscious entity can ever hope to do. 

DN: Really? That’s a bit disappointing. Moving on. Will the world run out of wheat any time soon? 

CARL: No, the world is not running out of wheat anytime soon. While the global wheat market is experiencing a tightening of supplies compared to last year’s record-breaking levels, global inventories remain highly secure and comfortable. 

DN: Again, I agree. Though maybe you could turn up your volume for those in the back who weren’t paying attention. Let’s change paths and head out to the Barn. Are the US cattle and beef markets still long-term bullish? 

CARL: Yes, the U.S. cattle and beef markets remain structurally and long-term bullish. While the market has experienced some near-term volatility, the underlying supply-and-demand fundamentals point to historically tight supplies and strong prices for several years to come. 

DN: How high could the cash live cattle market go? 

CARL: The cash live cattle market has already entered uncharted territory, setting historic, all-time highs in 2026. How the market can ultimately go depends on the balance between historically tight supplies and the point at which consumers push back against record-high beef prices. 

DN: What prices are you looking for? 

CARL: The cash live cattle market is currently testing its cyclical peak around $258 to $260/cwt. While a perfect storm of tight supplies and strong summer grilling season could temporarily spike cash prices toward $265 to $270/cwt over the next year, the market is likely nearing its absolute fundamental ceiling. Beyond these levels, consumer resistance to record-high retail beef prices is expected to cap further upward momentum.

DN: This has been interesting, and we will do it again sometime. But before we close this discussion, I have to ask you the most popular query I’ve had over the past 40 years; Will the December futures contract (ZCZ26) hit $5 again this year? 

CARL: Whether the December 2026 corn futures contract can hit $5.00 again this year is one of the most critical questions for producers and traders. 

DN: That’s why I asked you…

CARL: Let me finish meatbag (borrowed from Bender of Futurama fame). The probability is low to moderate. For December corn to mount a massive 63-cent (roughly) rally and reclaim $5.00 before the contract expires, the market would require a major, unexpected shift in fundamentals. The most likely triggers include: 

• A Severe July Weather Shock: Pollination Peril
• A Surprise in the June 30 USDA Acreage Report (Oh boy, here we go again)
• Geopolitical or Macro Disruptions

DN: Like any human analyst, you waffled a bit and didn’t actually answer the question. So, tell me yes or no, will the December 2026 corn contract hit $5.00 this year? 

CARL: I’m sorry Darin. I’m afraid I can’t do that. (Yikes!)

Thank you for joining us folks. We’ll do this again in the near future. 

^[i] My former friends at Iowa Public Television might be stunned by the fact I still do panel discussions, and rightfully so.