Soybean Futures 1 to 2 Cents Higher, Down 6 Month to Date

Soybean prices are 1 to 2 cents higher this morning. For the month to date, November futures are down 6 cents. Front month soybean futures ended the Friday session firm, closing fractionally mixed but mostly higher. The November to November spread tightened by 14 3/4 cents last week to a 30 3/4 cent nearby premium. Soymeal prices ended the last trade day of the week $0.50 to $1.50/ton in the red. BO futures gained 80 to 87 points on Friday, with October finishing the week 158 points above Monday’s open. 

The trade is expecting NASS to report corn harvest 16-17% complete, with the average pace  around 13%.  

Analyst estimates ahead of the quarterly Grain Stocks report shows the trade expects a 174 mbu soybean carry-in from the 20/21 season. The September WASDE estimated soybean stocks would be 175 mbu. If the trade average guess is realized that would imply a Q4 use of 670 mbu – assuming no revisions or imports.  China continues to be well behind year ago on soybean import purchases from the US, and has shut down more than 20 soybean crush plants until October, ostensibly to reduce energy use and pollution from coal fired power plants.  

The weekly CoT report showed soybean specs were exiting longs through the week that ended 9/21. The group was 5,679 contracts less net long to 49,701. The commercial soybean players were 12,619 contracts less net short by new end user buying. 

Nov 21 Soybeans  closed at $12.85, up 3/4 cent, up 2 ¾ this morning

Nearby Cash  was $12.41 5/7 on Friday, up 3/4 cent,

Jan 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.94 3/4, up 3/4 cent, up 2 ¾ this morning

Mar 22 Soybeans  closed at $12.97 3/4, up 1/4 cent, up 3 ½ this morning