
December lean hogs traded through the Wednesday session with a $1.25 range spending time on both sides of UNCH. The front month futures ultimately faded into the afternoon for 12 to 52 cent losses. USDA’s National Average Afternoon Base hog price for Wednesday was $1.81 weaker to $78.14. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/17 was down another 22 cents to $94.04.
Analyst expectations ahead of the quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs count see another expected reduction in the herd. Estimates range from a 2.7% drop to a 0.2% reduction for an average of 1.7% below Sept 1 2020. The largest drop is expected to come from the heavy weights with an average estimate of -2% yr/yr.
Pork stocks in cold storage as of 8/31 were 460.059m lbs. The monthly USDA data release confirmed that was back up from 442m lbs in July and just 4.8m below August 2020 as the tightest yr/yr comparison since BC. Note – BC levels were in the 580-640m lb range.
Pork cutout futures closed 37 to 77 cents weaker on the day as well, though October is still above the $100 cwt. mark. Wednesday afternoon’s National Pork Carcass Cutout Value was $106.92, up by $4.16 on strength in hams. USDA estimated the week’s FI hog slaughter through Wednesday at 1.394 million head after revising both Monday and Tuesday lower. That trails last week’s pace by 1.7% and the same week last year by 3.9%.
Oct 21 Hogs closed at $83.850, down $0.525,
Feb 22 Hogs closed at $76.525, down $0.175
Oct 21 Pork Cutout closed at $100.150, down $0.200,