Can Copper Still Rally After Reaching a Long-Term Target?

I asked if consolidation in copper around $6 per pound was bullish in a May 8, 2026, Barchart article, stating the following:

Buying copper during price corrections has been optimal for years, but buying on rallies has been extremely dangerous, and I expect that trend to continue. Copper has not traded below $3 since Q4 2020, and under $4 since Q3 2024.  

July COMEX copper futures traded at $6.3060 per pound on May 8, 2026, and after reaching the most recent high at over $6.70, the price has declined to below the $6.30 level in June 2026. 

Copper’s bull market continues

After reaching a new record high of $6.7160 per pound on the COMEX July futures contract in May 2026, copper futures remain in a bullish trend. 

The long-term quarterly COMEX copper futures chart shows that copper has made higher lows and higher highs since late 2001, reaching record highs in 2006, 2008, 2011, 2021, 2022, 2024, 2025, and 2026. 

COMEX copper futures almost reach Goldman Sachs’ 2021 target

In an April 13, 2021, report, Goldman Sachs Research called copper “the new oil,” writing that there is “no decarbonization without copper,” “the green transition will support a surge in copper demand”, and “the copper market is unprepared for this critical role.” In April 2021, COMEX copper futures traded in a $3.9435 to $4.5510 per pound range, with LME three-month forwards in an $8,695 to $10,008 per ton range. In April 2021, Goldman Sachs forecast that LME three-month copper prices would rise to $15,000 per ton, translating to a COMEX futures price of $6.8030 per pound. 

While COMEX futures reached their most recent high, which was only 8.7 cents below the forecast, LME futures were further from the target.

The three-month LME copper forward chart shows that the price rose to a record high of $14,527.50 per ton in January 2026, $472.50 below Goldman Sachs’ upside target. 

While COMEX and LME copper have not reached Goldman’s target, they have come close, increasing the risk for long positions at current price levels and the most recent highs. 

Bull markets rarely move in straight lines- Many corrections in copper, but none impacted the long-term trend

Even the most aggressive bull markets rarely move in straight lines, and copper is no exception. While COMEX copper futures and LME copper forwards have made higher lows and higher highs over the past two and a half decades without violating critical technical support levels, the long-term charts highlight periodic substantial corrections after prices reach new record highs. 

The most recent examples were the 20.3% correction in COMEX copper futures from the late January 2026 high to the March 2026 low, and the 19.5% correction in LME forwards from the January 2026 high to the March 2026 low. 

The bull case for copper- Can it continue to make higher highs?

While Goldman Sachs’ 2021 forecast focused on copper’s role in green energy initiatives and supply, in 2026, demand from artificial intelligence (AI) has created another vertical for the red nonferrous metal. Hyperscale data centers, power distribution, liquid cooling systems, and chip demand have only increased the demand side of copper’s fundamental equation.

However, in an April 26, 2026, JPMorgan research report, the outlook was bearish, with the note stating that “macro risks remain a major concern.” Goldman Sachs has tempered its enthusiasm for copper prices. While it maintains its long-term $15,000 per ton target, it expects copper to reach $13,735 per ton by the end of 2026. Citigroup is forecasting $15,000 per ton within the next year. While AI has added another demand vertical, no institution is currently forecasting a copper price above $15,000 per ton. 

The reasons for caution- Trading copper instead of investing could be optimal

With copper near the upside price targets at the most recent highs, the potential for further gains could be limited, and copper is more likely to correct for a test of its critical technical support at the March 2026 low of $11,700 per ton on the three-month LME futures and $5.2460 on the nearby COMEX copper futures. I expect those lows to hold as copper has made higher lows over the past twenty-five years, but they could come close to those levels.

In early June 2026, COMEX futures were around $6.30 per pound, while LME forwards were over $13,900 per ton. While upside targets of $6.8030 and $15,000 per ton are possible, risk-reward could favor the downside in the current environment. Since 2021, investing in copper has been optimal. In 2026, trading copper rather than investing could offer the greatest potential rewards. Copper could still rally and eclipse even the most bullish targets above $15,000 and $6.80, but selling at new record highs and buying ahead of critical technical support levels has been optimal for years, and I expect that trend to continue.