Is Consolidation Around $6 Bullish for Copper?

I asked if copper’s bullish trend was still intact in a February 6, 2026, Barchart article, when I concluded with the following:

Technical and fundamental factors support the continuation of the copper bull in February 2026. Given the red metal’s high volatility, buying on dips has been optimal since 2001, and I expect that trend to continue. 

Nearby COMEX copper futures were trading at $5.8480 per pound on February 6, 2026, and were higher at over the $6.30 level on May 8. The CPER ETF was trading at $38.32, above its early February level. 

Copper futures are trading around the $6 pivot point

COMEX copper futures continue to trade around $6, a level that has become a pivot point for the leading base metal. 

The daily continuous COMEX copper futures chart shows that copper’s price fell 20.3% from the record high of $6.5830 on January 29, 2026, to a low of $5.2460 on March 23, 2026. Copper prices bounced from the late March low and traded around the $6 per pound pivot point in April 2026. On May 8, the price was well above the pivot point. 

The long-term trend remains firmly intact

Over the past few years, copper prices have been volatile, with new highs prompting corrections. 

The 30-year continuous COMEX copper futures chart highlights that copper futures have made higher lows and higher highs over the past three decades, with the latest peak price in Q1 2026. Despite the correction, the long-term bullish trend remains firmly intact in May 2026. 

Copper fundamentals continue to support higher prices

Copper fundamentals have not changed since my February 6, 2026, Barchart article, which pointed to copper’s role as a critical component in technological advances in green energy and AI infrastructure, thereby increasing the demand side of its fundamental equation. On the supply side, the copper market has “essentially flat mine supply growth.”

Since then, hostilities in the Middle East have pushed energy prices appreciably higher, increasing the production costs of all raw materials, including copper. The bottom line is that supply and demand factors favor the upside, and higher production costs support higher copper prices over the coming months and years.  

Analyst forecasts are not overly bullish

With COMEX copper futures trading over $6 per pound, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and J.P. Morgan’s price targets are not all that exciting. 

In January 2023, Goldman Sachs forecast LME copper prices would drop to $11,000 per ton by the end of 2026, and that “We do not expect the price above $13,000 to be sustained.” LME three-month Grade A copper forwards were trading at $13,393 per metric ton on May 7, 2026, with the COMEX June futures just above $6.30 per pound on May 8. 

J.P. Morgan analysts project a full-year average of $12,075 per ton, with potential peaks of $12,500 in Q2 2026, which is below the current price. While the Iran conflict is increasing energy prices and production costs, the analysts believe it will slow economic growth and weigh on global copper demand. Moreover, the analysts believe copper prices could decline to $11,100 if bearish macro scenarios develop and trigger risk-off market price action. 

Bank of America analysts forecast an average price of $11,313 per ton in 2026, rising to $13,500 in 2027 as momentum builds. 

Meanwhile, Citigroup analysts remain bullish, with a base average of $13,000 per ton in 2026, around the current price level, with a bullish scenario of $15,000 per ton if supply shortages and low inventories persist.

Trading copper could be optimal at the current price level

Copper futures and forwards have been making higher lows and higher highs since the turn of this century. 

The long-term chart dating back to 1959 shows that copper futures never traded above $1.65 per pound until late 2005, and has not been below $2 per pound since Q1 2020. 

Buying copper during price corrections has been optimal for years, but buying on rallies has been extremely dangerous, and I expect that trend to continue. Copper has not traded below $3 since Q4 2020, and under $4 since Q3 2024. 

At the $6.30 level, copper prices are not attractive for buyers, but a correction toward the current technical support at $5.2460 could offer value. Copper will remain in a bullish trend so long as the price remains above $4 per pound. Continued consolidation around $6 per pound may not be bullish for copper, but based on the trading pattern over the past 25 years, another correction toward $5 could be another buying opportunity.

While COMEX futures and LME forwards are the most direct routes for trading and investing, the U.S. Copper ETF (CPER) is a liquid alternative. At $38.32 per share, CPER had $776.88 million in assets under management. CPER trades an average of nearly 648,000 shares per day and charges a 1.06% management fee. 

I am neutral on copper prices at $6.30 per pound. However, I would be a scale-down buyer on a correction to below $5.50 for the long term.