Video from 6-4-2026 PM:
Grain charts continued to break down as the selling snowballed into the afternoon. Cattle got whacked on the open but recovered quickly with feeders settling limit up!
July Corn The liquidation event continued yesterday, and hasn't let up much in the overnight and early morning trade. The RSI (relative strength index) now down to 27.40, the lowest reading since July 2024. The selling is relentless and I think everyone at this point agrees some relief is probably due for the market, from what level is the elusive and important question. Down here at contract lows, there's not a lot to go off of on the chart. Typically we look at charts as a roadmap, historical interaction between buyers and sellers. In this case (at new lows), there's no prior interaction to use. If you're using a continuous chart, you could point to 417 1/4, the January 13th low. Technical analysis comes with a grain of salt as it is, the continuous chart, an even bigger grain of salt. December Corn December corn futures continue to fall off a cliff, as if the combines are out there harvesting a perfect crop. The only problem is, it's the first week of June. Downside support from these levels targets the January 13th low, 445 1/4. Below that is the August lows, 440 3/4-442. Just below that is the contract low from August 2024 at 439. The RSI for December corn matches that of July, with a reading of 27.84. Upside resistance from these levels comes in well above the market at this point, so relief rallies could amount to 20ish cents. As mentioned in the July section, from what levels is the big question. Counter trend trade setups has us looking at the options market for exposure with well defined risk. Technical Levels of Importance (December futures)
July Soybeans Soybeans have finally decided to play catchup with corn and wheat, breaking below the 200-day moving average yesterday and not really letting up. That will now act as resistance, coming in at 1136 3/4. A close out above there and potentially you see some more relief towards 1152 1/2-1155 1/4. The next downside support pocket from these levels comes in from 1108-1112. Below that and there's some psychological support at 11, but not a lot of substantive support until closer to 1080. November Soybeans In yesterday's writeup we noted that the Bears are eyeing 1140 as the next meaningful support area. That was tested and is so far catching, despite a run through initially. If the market fails to hold 1134 3/4-1140, there's air down to 1110-1112 1/2. We'd like to think that the market can hold here, but the way the grain trade has been going, it feels like any bounce from here will be relief and sold into again, baring any new headlines around weather or China. Technical Levels of Importance (November futures)
July Chicago Wheat The velocity of the wheat selloff has slowed and we are seeing a glimpse of a weird greenish color on the chart this morning. Support from 575-577 remains intact from yesterday's morning writeup. From a risk/reward standpoint, this looks like a well defined spot for shorts to cover, or for longs to dip their toes in the market. A failure at that support pocket would flip the script. If the market can catch some relief, 596 -600 would be the upside target from here. So again, not a terrible risk/reward setup. Technical Levels of Importance
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