Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain

6/4/26

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The Cattle Markets were wicked today, with the Feeders closing locked limit up, and the Hogs trading lower again. August'26 Live Cattle were 367 ½ higher today and settled at 241.52 ½. Today's high was 242.30 and the 1-month high is 250.00. Today's low was 233.97 ½ and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 5/4 August'26 Live Cattle are 4.50 lower or almost 2%. The August'26 Feeders looked like a roller coaster today, settling limit up on the new expanded limits. The August'26 Feeder Cattle were 10.75 higher today and settled at 353.37 ½. Today's high was 353.37 ½ and the 1-month and contract high are 374.87 ½. Today's low was 335.95 and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 5/4 August'26 Feeder Cattle are 13.22 ½ lower or almost 4%. The Hogs traded a little lower today. July'26 Lean Hogs were 40 cents lower today and settled at 101.60. Today's high was 101.75 and the 1-month high is 106.30. Today's low was 99.85 and the 1-month low is 98.30. Since 5/4 July'26 Lean Hogs are 20 cents lower or fractionally lower. It's a great day to be alive! All the markets were crazy today. The Feeder Market, thankfully, did exactly what I thought it would do today, and closed even stronger than I anticipated. The screwworm scare sent the Feeders almost 6-dollars lower on the open this morning, but after the algo's were done, the market shot straight up as expected. The August'26 Feeders made a new 1-month low this morning at 335.95 and then shot $17.42 ½ higher to settle limit up, on newly expanded daily limits that began on June 1st. The new daily limit for the Feeders is obviously 10.75 and, in the Fats, the new daily limit is 8.50. Tomorrow, the Feeders will have an expanded limit of 16-dollars, and the Fats will have an extended limit of 12.75. I was able to put on more Bullish Option Trades this morning right on the open in the September'26 Feeders, and that worked out just fine. It is the same September'26 Feeder Trade I sent to you yesterday, if you receive my emails. The “fear” of the Screwworm keeping the Cattle Markets lower was ridiculous, as infected Cattle, along with all the other Cattle with it will be locked down, and not just in one feedyard or pasture, it locks down ALL Cattle in a 12-Mile radius, and I heard it could last for a while, and a larger outbreak could require the use of drugs through the US Food and Drug Administration. Cattle numbers are already tight as everyone knows, and if this thing spreads, then based on current regulations, (and things always change) more Cattle could be locked down as well. If the Screwworm does spread and causes problems moving Cattle, or finding available Cattle, then prices can trade much higher, however, if prices spike, then I would anticipate the Southern Border reopening quickly. No point keeping it closed if the screwworm spreads everywhere here, and that is what the government could do if prices climb, along with changing the rules. So, I recommend staying nimble in the Option Markets moving forward, and or using a sliding stop to protect the downside in the Futures. I am still Bullish the Cattle Markets. I would like to speak with you, and when you have time, give me a call.

Comments from Tuesday:

The Cattle Markets traded lower today, with worries of the screwworm approaching the US border. The closest report of a screwworm I have heard or seen is 31 miles South of the US Border. I still feel the Cattle Markets are a buy, and I bought some futures today in the Feeders. The Stock Markets are at record highs, and the Crude Oil could be breaking shortly. If or when a screwworm is found in the US, I would expect the market to break initially on unnecessary “fear” but then rally back. If Cattle in the US are found to have the screwworm, then all Cattle in that area will be “locked down” and unable to move. It is not clear how big of an area would be locked down, the duration, or what would be needed to lift the lock down. If the area is substantial, then that could cause more strain on a Cattle Market that already has very tight numbers. I am still Bullish the Fats and Feeders and feel we can see higher prices the rest of this week and beyond. The July'26 Hogs rallied 3.35 after setting a new 1-month low today at 98.30. I doubt that the new 1-month low will hold there for very long. I would like to work with you, give me a call.

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NOW IS THE TIME TO OPEN AN ACCOUNT BEFORE IT IS JULY AGAIN

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BELOW IS A DIRECT LINK TO FILL OUT ACCOUNT PAPERWORK - PLEASE CALL ME IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS.

https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

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Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.

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The Grain Markets collapsed today, and I feel it could continue lower. July'26 Soybeans were 24 ½ cents lower today and settled at 1129 ½. Today's high was 1155 ¼ and the 1-month high is 1235. Today's low was 1120 ½ and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 5/4 July'26 Soybeans are 93 ¼ cents lower or more than 7 ½%. July'26 Corn traded much lower as well. July'26 Corn was 7 cents lower today and settled at 424 ½. Today's high was 431 ½ and the 1-month and contract high are 487 ½. Today's low was 421 ½ and that is the new 1-month and contract low as well. Since 5/4 July'26 Corn is 61 ¼ cents lower or more than 12%. The Wheat Market also traded lower for the fifth day in a row today. July'26 Wheat was 5 ½ cents lower today and settled at 581 ¾. Today's high was 590 ½ and the 1-month and contract high are 688 ¼. Today's low was 579 ¼ and that is the new 1-month low as well. Since 5/4 July'26 Wheat is 59 ¼ cents lower or more than 9%. It is great when the markets cooperate and do what they are supposed to do. The Soybean price has been inflated for a while, and it now starting to come back down to reality. I have liked the 1100 level in July'26 Soybeans for a while, and this week it has paid off. I do not see the Beans trading higher from here for a while, and they could continue to grind lower from here. The Corn Market made a new contract low today, and it could be a buying opportunity. Today I bought the September'26 Corn and sold the December'26. That spread settled 19 cents under today and September'26 could eventually trade over the December'26. The Wheat Market was inflated as well, and it was a good ride lower, right to my level for July'26 Wheat at 580. I don't expect much upside in the wheat market moving forward for a while. I did put on new trades in the Soybean Oil this morning, and they are working well. If you received my emails yesterday, I did the first one listed. If you would like to see any of my trade ideas, just let me know. It was one heck of a day, and I appreciate your business. I am looking forward to tomorrow, but now it is time for a beer or two. Have a great night. 

Comments from Tuesday:

The Grains have all been breaking for a while now, and that is because they should. July'26 Beans have zero business being over or anywhere near 1200. I still feel we can see them trade closer to the 1100 level. The Corn Market kinda did what I thought it would do. I sold the July'26 440 Straddle for 38 cents and today it settled at 17 ¾, and I am expecting it to expire worthless. The Wheat Market finally fell out of bed, and that has been a good trade as I continued to sell it all the way up in the Option Market. I feel we can see the July'26 Wheat trade toward the 580 level. Planting has gone well, and the weather in general has been good. The Brazilian Soybean crop will be a monster, and harvest is nearing completion. They won't waste any time getting the Corn in the ground as well. It looks like the Wheat will survive as needed rains came for much of the Wheat in drought conditions. I feel this all points to lower grain prices in the near term. We will have to wait and see if the weather continues to cooperate and if it does, we could see much lower Soybean prices. I still like buying November'26 Soybeans and selling July'26 Soybeans. I have new trades in Grain Markets ready to go in the Option Markets. I would like to talk to you about it, give me a call when you have a chance. Have a great night. 

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If you don't like the customer service or personal attention you are receiving from your broker, you have options, and you don't have to stay there. I can have your new account open in 1-2 days. Call me anytime 312-957-8079   BALLEN@WALSHTRADING.COM     Sign Up Now

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If you would like to open an account, please use this direct link https://portal2.straitsfinancial.com/Identity/Account/Register?brokerId=978

.

.

Having a Trading or Hedging Account is essential for your business to be successful. Market volatility has increased across all commodities over the last 12 months, and I expect it to continue to increase over the next 12 months as well. Opening an account in the future, will not help you if you need access now. To be successful, you need to be able to manage risk in real time. If you are proactive now, you will have the ability to be reactive when you need to be. You can be Prepared and Patient at the same time. Call me or hit the direct link above.

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Thank you to all of my Canadian Customers. If you live in Alberta or Ontario, you are able to open an account in the USA. Hopefully we can work with the Province of Saskatchewan, and all Canadian Provinces soon. Your ability to open an account in the US is blocked by your Provincial Governments, not by the United States. 

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Thank you to all of my old and new Customers. I appreciate your business. To those of you that are close to opening an account, please call me if you have any questions, and I look forward to working with you soon. To anyone thinking about opening a Hedge or Trading account, give me a call and we can talk about it. 

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GOD BLESS AMERICA

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Give me a call if you have any questions.

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Bill Allen

Vice President

Pure Hedge Division 

Direct: 312-957-8079

ballen@walshtrading.com

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