Grain Markets Under Pressure After a Long Weekend. Is the Top In?

Headlines

-Reuters

• Expectations of a U.S.-Iran peace deal raised the prospect that fuel and fertiliser could flow more freely from the Gulf, easing supply shortages. 

• Wheat futures fell for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday as rainfall eased drought conditions in U.S. cropping zones and traders positioned for fresh supplies from Northern Hemisphere harvests. 

• Argentina's government said it would reduce export taxes on agricultural exports including grains, which could support production and boost shipments. 

• The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its 2025/26 soybean and corn harvest estimates for Argentina 

• Brazil's energy policy council CNPE is expected to approve raising the mandatory ethanol blend in gasoline to 32% from 30%. Strong biofuel demand has supported crop prices in recent months. 

• The European Union plans to temporarily lift customs duties on key nitrogen-based fertilizers such as urea and ammonia to help farmers cope with price rises. 

Corn Technicals

July Corn

July corn futures opened the Sunday night session lower, worked their way back to fil the gap, but are now resting just above our support pocket, 455-457 1/4.  A failure here and things could start to spiral on the back of technical long liquidation.  The next downside target would be 448 1/2, which matches the low from April 10th.  On the resistance side of things, the Bulls have their work cutout for them after marking lower highs in each of the last 3-weeks.  The first significant resistance hurdle comes in from 467 3/4-471 1/2. 

• Resistance:  467 3/4-471 1/2***, 484-487 1/2****, 499-501**
• Pivot: 460-461 3/4
• Support: 455-457 1/4***

December Corn

Like old crop corn, the new crop contract saw a gap lower, recovered, and has since retreated back near the lows of the session.  As mentioned in some of last week's commentary, though we remain upbeat on December corn over a longer time frame, the lower high from last week coupled with the breakdown back below the 20 and 50 day moving averages is a near term caution sign.  First support from here comes in from 473 1/2-474 3/4.  This represents the 100-day moving average along with the 50% retracement from the August lows to recent highs

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Soybean Technicals

July Soybeans

July soybean futures are softer to start the week and are again flirting with the 50-day moving average, which is now sloping lower.  The setup in July beans continues to favor the Bear camp with upward mobility being fairly well defined on the chart, while prices remain below the 20-day moving average.  We also noted the Head and Shoulders formation taking form, similar to the setup in October.  Support from last week's commentary remains intact, a pocket that we've had outlined as 1180-1182 1/2.  Below that and there's about 20 cents of air. 

• Resistance: 1215 1/4-1220***, 1235-1240 1/4***, 1250 3/4**
• Pivot:  1199 1/2
• Support: 1180-1182 1/2****, 1155-1160****

November Soybeans

November soybean futures are back below the 20-day moving average and testing trendline support.  This is a bit of a make or break level we sit at this morning, near 1180.  A failure to hold ground here leaves the market exposed to downside risks at 1164 1/2.  Below that and a greater unwind could start to take place

Wheat Technicals

July Chicago Wheat

July wheat futures are back below to support from 633-636.  The last time we were here the market held beautifully, the second test may not be as friendly.   A failure there and continued pressure to 620-622 3/4 seems like the path of least resistance.  Below that and prices dropping back to and below $6.00 wouldn't be out of the question.  On the resistance side of things, Bulls need to reclaim ground above 649 3/4-651 1/4 to neutralize the recent weakness

• Resistance: 685-688 1/4***, 700*
• Pivot: 649 3/4-651 1/4
• Support: 633-636***, 620-622 3/4***, 600**, 575-577****

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