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Cattle futures tapped out this week with Live Cattle futures breaking down all week and Feeder Cattle consolidating in a big early week trading range then finishing the week with a crash lower that took price below its 200-DMA on the continuous chart. Meanwhile, the cash markets held their own during the future’s blood bath. Live Cattle stayed steady with last week’s record prices while feeder cattle in the north ignored the futures breakdown and potentially bearish cattle on feed report with some strong sales late on Friday. The south, however, seems to be moving cattle at lower prices to keep the index in check and essentially steady with last week’s range of prices. So, cash prices in the fat market staying within last week’s record price range and futures breaking down from a Monday peak at 249.975 to Friday’s low at 236.825 for the August Contract which is the lead contract based on volume. The June contract, which is the spot month, fell from a high at 255.775 on Monday to its Friday low at 247.475. Both markets rebounded of their lows to settle slightly above their previous day’s settlement. August Feeders on the other hand had gap opened lower on Friday, almost went down the expanded limit and was only able to claw back about half of its Friday decline to close deep in the red and below its crucial 200-DMA. Leaving the gap in place. The breakdowns in these markets have unnerved traders and producers, bringing up the fatal remarks that the all-time highs are in; that the futures markets are going to derail the cash market as all outside forces are conspiring against the market to limit the upside in cash. This, while drought and fires limit the growth of grass to expand the cattle supply which if it happens would still take 2 years or so to accomplish in my opinion. Fears of screwworm in Texas. Fears of plant shutdowns(Cargill the latest to experience shutdowns due to a lockout and a potential sympathy strike from a sister plant). Fears of Presidential executive orders to try to lower beef prices by bringing in more imported beef. Fears of soaring prices cratering beef demand. Fears of more plant shutdowns away from the strikes/ lockout. Fears anything that could drive down futures prices that would pressure cash prices at some point. And on and on and on…. Plus, this looks like 2014/ 2015 or just 2015 now. Producers bullish while futures traders turning bearish. Well, why didn’t futures prices forward look back in October/ November for the April and June contracts to trade in the 250 handle expecting cash to reach 260ish? When futures crash the talk is they are forward looking… Well, where did that take you back in October/November? Always negative always forward looking. So, in my humble opinion futures can get it wrong. The forward look back then was wrong, and it could be wrong again. The truth is no one knows when the top or bottom of the market will occur until the future gives us the answer. We can only look to protect or speculate on price. We’ll see!... August Feeder Cattle gap opened lower and made a feeble attempt to close the gap that failed at the session high at 355.50. It turned lower and blew through support at the rising 200-DMA now at 353.65 and support at 350.20, trading down to the low at 344.275. This was just below support at 344.675 and just above the expanded limit and this had traders take futures higher to settle in the upper middle of the long trading range at 349.85. Settlement was below the two upper support levels mentioned above. A failure at settlement could see price revisit the Friday low. A breakdown from there could see price test support at 341.05. If settlement holds, we could test resistance at the 200-DMA. Resistance then comes in at 354.55 and then the Friday high. The gap high is at the Thursday low at 356.525. August Live Cattle opened lower and traded to the high at 240.975. The open was below the rising 100-DMA now at 240.85 and the opening salvo failed the hold the long-term moving average resistance. This took price lower as the Feeder Cattle was collapsing, taking fats below support at 238.125 to its low at 236.825. The fats repeatedly tried to rally but the weak Feeders kept sellers in control until price found support just above the rising 200-DMA now at 235.85. Traders were able to get price moving higher, which helped support the weaker Feeders as some traders lightened positions at the end of the day in front of the Cattle on Feed report(see below). This took price back above 238.125 and it settled in the upper end of the range at 239.60. If cattle can overtake the rising 100-DMA it could test resistance at 242.05. Resistance then comes in at 245.125. A failure from settlement could see price re-test support at 238.125 and then the rising 200-DMA. Support is next at 235.625.
The Feeder Cattle Index released Friday decreased and is at 368.20 as of 05/21/2026 settlement.
Boxed beef cutouts were lower as choice cutouts decreased 1.21 to 390.27 and select decreased 0.65 to 385.00. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 5.27 and the load count was 75.
Friday’s estimated slaughter is 99,000, which is below last week’s 100,000 and last year’s 100,080. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 2,000, which is below last week’s 9,000 and above last year’s 1,465. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 528,000, which is below last week’s 535,000 and last year’s 576,278.
The USDA report LM_Ct131 states: So far for Friday, negotiated cash trade has been light on moderate demand in Kansas and Nebraska. Compared to Thursday in Kansas, live purchases have been 1.00 lower at mostly 259.00. Compared to Thursday in Nebraska, live purchases have been 2.00 lower at 258.00 and dressed purchases have been 2.00 lower at mostly 408.00. Negotiated cash trade has been limited on moderate demand in the Western Cornbelt with a few live purchases from 258.00-260.00, but not enough for an adequate market test. The last established market test for the Western Cornbelt was Thursday with live purchases at 260.00 and last week with dressed purchases at mostly 410.00. Negotiated cash trade has been inactive on light demand in the Texas Panhandle. The last established market test in the Texas Panhandle was Thursday with live purchases at 260.00.
The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 258.00 – 265.00 and from 405.00 – 415.00 on a dressed basis (so far) for the week.
United States Cattle on Feed Up 2 Percent
Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 11.6 million head on May 1, 2026. The inventory was 2 percent above May 1, 2025.
Placements in feedlots during April totaled 1.70 million head, 6 percent above 2025. Net placements were 1.65 million head. During April, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 330,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 245,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 390,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 457,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 210,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 70,000 head.
Marketings of fed cattle during April totaled 1.64 million head, 10 percent below 2025.
Other disappearance totaled 52,000 head during April, 4 percent above 2025.
**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**
Ben DiCostanzo
Senior Livestock Analyst
Walsh Trading, Inc.
Direct: 312.957.4163
888.391.7894
Fax: 312.256.0109
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