Hogs React to NASS Data on Friday

The front month futures were up triple digits, including a 3.8% rally for the Dec contract, on Thursday heading into the NASS Hogs and Pigs report. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Thursday afternoon was $74.76, down by $1.86. The ECB quote was $73.61, compared to $75.55 for the WCB. CME’s 9/26 Lean Hog Index dropped another 17 cents to $86.14. 

The Quarterly H&P update showed the hog herd was 74.319m head on September 1st. That was up 0.26% from Sep ’22, compared to the average trade guess for a 1% drop. The breeding herd was lower yr/yr by 1.2%, matching the average trade guess. NASS showed the June-Aug pig crop was 34.229m head, a surprise 0.4% increase yr/yr compared to the 1.4% decrease expected. Pigs/litter jumped to 11.61 vs. 11.13 last year. Farrowing intentions for Sep-Nov were listed as 2.93m head, down 162k (-5.2%), and for Dec-Feb as 2.912m head (-1.4%). 

USDA’s Export Sales report had 27,402 MT of pork bookings for the week that ended 9/21. That was 9% lower for the week and was 20% lower yr/yr. Pork shipments were 30k MT for the week, bringing the yearly total to 1.15 MMT. 

Pork cutout futures settled the session $1.32 to $3.07 in the black on Thursday. USDA’s PM National Pork Cutout Value was 84 cents weaker to $96.92. USDA estimated the FI hog slaughter at 1.923m head for the week through Thursday. That is down from 1.938m last week, and is 1,000 head lighter than the same week last year. 

Oct 23 Hogs  closed at $83.950, up $1.825,

Dec 23 Hogs  closed at $75.525, up $2.750

Oct 23 Pork Cutout  closed at $93.975, up $1.325,