VEON's Pakistan and Ukraine Momentum Could Finally Offset the Tax and Interest Drag

VEON Ltd. (NASDAQ: VEON) reports first-quarter 2026 earnings tomorrow, May 13, before the market opens, with investors focused on whether the global digital operator can sustain momentum after a volatile 2025 that saw earnings swing from $8.30 per share in Q2 to a loss of $0.39 in Q4. The central question: can VEON stabilize profitability and deliver on its full-year guidance of $4.8–$4.9 billion in revenue amid ongoing operational challenges in its emerging-market footprint? With six analysts maintaining Strong Buy ratings and a consensus price target of $81.42 implying 63% upside, the stakes are high for a company trading at just $50.00 per share.

Part 1: Earnings Preview

VEON Ltd. is a global telecommunications and digital services provider operating mobile and internet networks across emerging markets, delivering voice, data, and digital lifestyle applications to individual and enterprise customers. Headquartered in Amsterdam, the company generates revenue primarily through its mobile network operations in markets including Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Central Asia.

Earnings Date & Estimates: VEON reports Q1 2026 results on May 13, 2026, before the market opens. Wall Street has not published consensus EPS or revenue estimates for the quarter, reflecting limited analyst coverage. The company most recently reported Q4 2025 EPS of -$0.39, a sharp reversal from the prior quarter's $1.14. For context, VEON posted $1.36 per share in Q1 2025, making year-over-year comparisons critical.

Full-Year Outlook: Analysts expect 2026 EPS of $8.56 on revenue of $4.83 billion, representing 9.74% revenue growth but a 17.69% decline in earnings compared to 2025's $10.40. For 2027, consensus calls for a rebound to $9.99 per share (+16.71%) on $5.17 billion in revenue (+7.00%).

Key Themes Heading Into Earnings:

1. Profitability Stabilization After Q4 Loss: VEON's swing to a $0.39 loss in Q4 2025 followed an exceptional $8.30 earnings quarter in Q2, raising questions about earnings quality and sustainability. Investors will scrutinize whether Q1 marks a return to normalized profitability or signals deeper operational headwinds.

2. Revenue Guidance Execution: Management issued 2026 revenue guidance of $4.8–$4.9 billion in March, above the prior consensus of $4.7 billion. With Q1 revenue estimated at $1.2 billion (up 16.7% year-over-year), investors will assess whether the company is on track to meet its full-year target and what that implies for margin recovery.

3. Emerging Market Macro Pressures: As a telecom operator concentrated in volatile emerging markets, VEON faces currency headwinds, regulatory uncertainty, and competitive intensity. Analyst commentary suggests the company's ability to navigate these challenges while maintaining subscriber growth and ARPU expansion will be critical to the investment thesis.

Analyst Sentiment: Wall Street remains overwhelmingly bullish despite recent volatility. All six covering analysts rate VEON a Strong Buy, with price targets ranging from $67.50 to $100.00 and a mean of $81.42—implying 63% upside from current levels. Analysts have increased their Strong Buy ratings from five to six over the past month, signaling growing confidence. However, the lack of published Q1 estimates suggests caution about near-term visibility.

Part 2: Historical Earnings Performance

VEON's earnings track record over the past year reveals extreme volatility and limited estimate transparency. Of the four most recent quarters, only Q3 2025 provided a comparable estimate: the company reported $1.14 against a consensus of $1.21, missing by 5.79%. The other three quarters—Q1, Q2, and Q4 2025—had no published estimates, making it impossible to assess beat/miss patterns systematically.

What stands out is the dramatic earnings swing: Q1 2025 delivered $1.36, Q2 surged to $8.30 (a 510% jump), Q3 fell back to $1.14, and Q4 collapsed to a $0.39 loss. This pattern suggests either one-time items distorting reported results or significant operational instability. The Q2 spike, in particular, raises questions about whether VEON benefited from asset sales, tax adjustments, or other non-recurring gains.

The absence of estimates for three of four quarters indicates Wall Street's difficulty modeling VEON's business, likely due to emerging-market exposure, currency volatility, and limited disclosure. Investors should approach Q1 results with caution: without a consensus benchmark, the market's reaction will hinge entirely on management's narrative and guidance rather than a clean beat-or-miss framework.

Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

VEON typically reports earnings before the market opens, meaning Day 0 captures the first full trading session's reaction to results, while Day +1 reflects follow-through or reversal dynamics.

VEON's post-earnings price behavior shows high volatility with a bullish bias. Over the past eight earnings releases, the stock averaged an absolute Day 0 move of 5.94% within an intraday range of 7.82%, indicating significant initial reactions. Day +1 follow-through averaged 1.88% with a 3.42% range, suggesting momentum often extends into the second session.

The most recent earnings (March 2026) exemplify this pattern: VEON surged 14.20% on Day 0 with a 23.11% intraday range—the largest swing in the dataset—before giving back just 0.20% the next day. Similarly, November 2025 saw a 14.77% Day 0 gain followed by a 3.76% Day +1 pullback, while May 2025 jumped 12.20% initially with minimal follow-through.

The data reveals a clear tendency for outsized Day 0 reactions (five of eight quarters moved 5%+ on earnings day) with relatively muted Day +1 activity. Notably, the three largest Day 0 moves—March 2026 (+14.20%), November 2025 (+14.77%), and May 2025 (+12.20%)—all trended positive, suggesting the market rewards VEON for exceeding low expectations or delivering positive surprises. Conversely, smaller Day 0 moves (August 2024's flat performance, December 2024's 1.67% decline) corresponded with less dramatic results.

Investors should prepare for material volatility on May 13, with history suggesting a 6–8% move is typical and double-digit swings are not uncommon when results deviate meaningfully from expectations.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing a 4.59% expected move through the May 15 expiration (three days away), implying a range of $47.71–$52.30. This is below VEON's average historical Day 0 move of 5.94% and well below the 7.82% average intraday range, suggesting options traders may be underestimating potential volatility. Given VEON's track record of double-digit earnings-day swings—particularly the 14.20% and 14.77% moves in the two most recent quarters—the current implied move appears conservative and could present opportunity for volatility buyers.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Wall Street maintains unanimous bullish conviction on VEON despite recent earnings volatility. All six analysts covering the stock rate it a Strong Buy (5.00 average rating), with the consensus price target of $81.42 implying 63% upside from the current $50.00 price. Price targets range from a low of $67.50 (+35%) to a high of $100.00 (+100%), reflecting broad agreement on significant undervaluation but differing views on the magnitude of potential gains.

Analyst sentiment has remained unchanged over the past month, with the Strong Buy count increasing from five to six but the overall rating holding steady at 5.00. Notably, there are zero Hold, Sell, or Strong Sell ratings, an unusual concentration of bullish views that suggests analysts see VEON's emerging-market telecom assets as deeply discounted relative to fundamentals. The lack of any bearish or neutral voices, however, also means consensus expectations may be vulnerable to disappointment if execution falters.

The $81.42 mean target implies analysts expect VEON to deliver on its 2026–2027 earnings growth trajectory ($8.56 rising to $9.99 per share) while re-rating toward a higher valuation multiple. At $50.00, the stock trades at just 5.8x forward 2026 earnings and 5.0x 2027 estimates—a steep discount to global telecom peers that typically command 10–15x multiples. Analysts appear to be betting that profitability stabilization, revenue guidance execution, and emerging-market growth will drive multiple expansion, though the path to $81+ requires both operational delivery and a material shift in investor sentiment.

Part 4: Technical Picture

VEON enters earnings in a deteriorating technical position after rolling over from recent highs. The Barchart Technical Opinion currently signals 80% Sell, unchanged from last week but a sharp reversal from the 16% Buy reading just one month ago. This rapid shift reflects growing downside momentum as the stock has failed to hold key support levels.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal indicates near-term momentum has turned negative, though not at extreme levels
• Medium-term (100% Sell): Strong sell signal across all medium-term indicators suggests the intermediate trend has decisively broken down
• Long-term (100% Sell): Unanimous long-term sell reading reflects sustained weakness in the broader trend structure

Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is classified as Weak but Strengthening, indicating selling pressure is building but has not yet reached panic levels—a setup that could accelerate lower on disappointing earnings or stabilize quickly on positive results.

The stock's relationship to moving averages confirms the breakdown: VEON trades at $50.00, above only the 5-day ($49.42) and 10-day ($49.47) averages while sitting below all longer-term benchmarks—the 20-day ($51.34), 50-day ($50.48), 100-day ($52.09), and 200-day ($52.36). This configuration shows the stock briefly bounced off short-term support but remains trapped beneath a ceiling of resistance from the 20-day through 200-day averages. The tight clustering of the 50-day ($50.48) just above the current price and the 20-day ($51.34) slightly higher creates a critical resistance zone at $50.50–$51.50 that VEON must reclaim to reverse the technical damage.

The $50.48 fifty-day moving average represents the most immediate resistance level, with a break above signaling potential trend reversal, while a failure to hold the $49.42 five-day average would likely trigger accelerated selling into the $47–$48 support zone. The overall technical setup is cautionary heading into earnings: with all medium- and long-term indicators flashing sell signals and the stock pinned beneath a wall of moving average resistance, VEON needs a material positive surprise to spark a technical breakout. Conversely, any disappointment could quickly push the stock toward the lower end of the options-implied range at $47.71 or below, particularly given the strengthening sell signal momentum. Traders should watch for a decisive break above $51.34 (the 20-day average) as confirmation that earnings have shifted the technical tide, or a close below $49.42 as a signal that the downtrend is accelerating.