No Sellers Anywhere: The S&P 500's AI-Charged Run to New ATHs

Beyond the Risk Premium: How AI Earnings Turbocharge the ATH Breakout

The setup coming into April was straightforward. War breaks out, oil spikes, the S&P 500 sells off sharply, and a war risk premium gets embedded in prices. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran sparked a relief rally, which logically should have re-rated the index back toward the pre-war 7,000 level and nothing more. But that is not what happened.

The market did not just recover. It blew past 7,000 to new ATHs and kept going. The reason is that the geopolitical relief rally collided almost perfectly with the most consequential earnings season in years. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all surpassed earnings expectations for Q1 2026, driven by AI and cloud computing expansion. The headline print was Alphabet's cloud, which grew 63% year-on-year to $20.02 billion, blowing past analyst estimates of $18.05 billion and accelerating sharply from the 48% growth posted in Q4 2025. Microsoft's AI business is now running at a $37 billion annualized revenue rate, up 123% year-on-year. The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index closed at a record, extending its 2026 gain to 50%, as picks-and-shovels suppliers continue to benefit from AI spending whether or not the spenders themselves do. 

This is the critical distinction that answers the ATH puzzle. The war risk premium removal got the market back to 7,000, but the earnings beat got it to 7,400. As Zaccarelli of Northlight Asset Management put it, stock prices follow earnings, and at least for now, earnings are growing too quickly for the market to ignore. One strategist summarized it plainly. Despite lingering geopolitical tensions, oil prices above $100 per barrel, a Fed firmly in wait-and-see mode, ongoing inflation concerns, and job displacement fears, markets have continued to push higher, with the answer coming down to three words, profits, profits, and profits. 

Paul Tudor Jones added fuel to the fire, saying the AI-fueled bull market still has another year or two to run, drawing parallels to Microsoft's early software dominance in the 1980s and the commercialization of the internet in the mid-1990s. In short, the market is not just pricing in the absence of war. It is pricing in a multi-year AI earnings super cycle that macro headwinds have so far been unable to derail. 

The key current sensitivities are the path of crude oil with Brent above $100 as the primary inflation overhang, the tone of any Iran peace negotiations where each flare-up is sold intraday but bought on close, the CPI print due this week which will determine whether the Fed rate-hike narrative gains legs, and the continued cadence of AI capex and cloud revenue data from the hyper-scalers.

What the Market Has Done

• The market staged a sharp V shape recovery following ceasefire headlines, with buyers aggressively reclaiming lost ground.
• There were no meaningful sellers at the 2026 VWAP near the 6800 level, showing strong demand on the retracement.
• There were also no sellers at the 7000 level, which aligned with daily level 2 and pre-war all-time highs. Price moved through that zone with ease, confirming buyers were fully in control.
• The market accepted higher above 7000, although upside momentum was briefly contained by the 7200 level.
• On April 30, the snp500 broke to fresh all-time highs.
• This was followed by three sessions of sideways consolidation between 7300 and 7200, forming a clear bid block.
• Buyers defended that structure and triggered another breakout to fresh all-time highs.

What to Expect in the Coming Weeks

The immediate key level to watch is 7300, which remains an important minor level. 

Bullish

• If buyers continue holding bids higher, the path remains open toward century figures at 7500 and potentially 7600.
• A pullback into the 7300 area remains possible before continuation higher.
• Possible trigger: a formal ceasefire or peace framework is agreed upon through the Pakistani-mediated channel, triggering an oil flush below $90 and removing the energy-driven inflation overhang. This would give the Fed less reason to resume hiking, a combination that would be a straightforward tailwind for equities.

Bearish

• If buyers fail to defend 7300, price could rotate lower toward 7200 (daily level 1).
• If buyers fail to respond quickly there, a deeper move through the bid block could open downside toward 7000 (daily level 2 and former pre-war all time high zone).
• Possible trigger: the ceasefire breaks down materially and the U.S. resumes active military operations, causing Brent crude to spike back above $110 to $115. A simultaneously hot CPI print would cause markets to price in a Fed rate hike, delivering a stagflationary double-hit that reprices risk assets lower.

Neutral

• A two-way rotation between 7400 and 7300 remains possible as the market builds balance at higher levels before the next directional move. 
• Possible trigger: ceasefire talks continue in diplomatic limbo, neither breaking down nor reaching a formal agreement, with oil oscillating in a $95 to $105 range while the market waits on the CPI print for directional clarity. In this scenario, price action chops as bulls and bears reach an uneasy equilibrium at elevated ATH levels.

Conclusion

The S&P 500's run to new ATHs in the face of an active war, Brent above $100, and a Fed on hold is a testament to just how dominant the AI earnings narrative has become. The market has effectively told you that profits trump geopolitics, at least for now. The risk is that this calculus flips quickly if the ceasefire unravels in a meaningful way, or if the CPI print next week forces the rate-hike conversation back onto the table. For now, buyers remain in full control, the bid block between 7,200 and 7,300 remains the structural foundation, and 7,300 is the line in the sand. How price behaves around that level in the coming sessions will set the tone for whether this bull run has another leg or needs to consolidate before its next push toward 7,500 and beyond. 

We believe that professional growth is impossible without the truth found in your own data. Our presence on Barchart bridges the gap between complex exchange data and professional execution. Open an Account and access the tools you need to see your performance clearly.

Disclaimer:

This article is provided for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. The analysis presented reflects the author’s market observations and opinions at the time of writing and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any futures contract, security, or financial instrument. Futures trading involves significant risk and is not suitable for all market participants. Losses may exceed initial margin deposits, and market conditions can change rapidly.

Any scenarios, levels, or market expectations discussed are hypothetical in nature and are intended solely to illustrate potential market behavior. They do not represent actual trading results and should not be interpreted as guarantees of future performance. Past performance, market behavior, or historical price action are not indicative of future outcomes.

Readers are solely responsible for their own trading decisions and risk management. Always conduct independent research, consider your financial situation and risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial professional, if necessary, before engaging in futures or derivatives trading.