Instacart's Advertising Business Could Finally Overshadow Grocery Delivery

Maplebear Inc. (NASDAQ: CART), the company behind grocery delivery platform Instacart, reports first-quarter 2026 earnings tomorrow morning before the bell. With the stock trading above all key moving averages and analyst sentiment improving, investors will be watching whether the company can sustain its recent momentum of consistent earnings beats and accelerating growth. The central question: can CART deliver another upside surprise and maintain the trajectory that has driven shares higher over the past month?

Part 1: Earnings Preview

Maplebear operates Instacart, North America's leading online grocery platform connecting consumers with retailers through same-day delivery and pickup services. The company monetizes through transaction fees and a rapidly growing advertising business that leverages its retailer partnerships.

CART reports Q1 2026 results on May 6, 2026, before market open. Analysts expect earnings of $0.57 per share on revenue of approximately $1.01 billion. The company most recently reported Q4 2025 earnings of $0.53 per share, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of beating estimates. Year-over-year, the Q1 consensus represents 54% growth versus the $0.37 reported in Q1 2025, signaling expectations for significant acceleration.

Three key themes define this earnings story:

1. Advertising Revenue Momentum: Instacart's advertising platform has emerged as a critical growth driver, with the company increasingly monetizing its retailer relationships through sponsored product placements and brand partnerships. Analysts are watching whether ad revenue can maintain double-digit growth rates amid broader digital advertising headwinds.

2. Order Volume and Customer Retention: Gross transaction value (GTV) and active customer metrics will reveal whether Instacart is gaining or losing share in the competitive grocery delivery market. Recent quarters showed order volume growth outpacing revenue growth, suggesting healthy underlying demand trends that investors want to see continue.

3. Path to Profitability: With four straight quarters of earnings beats and expanding margins, the focus has shifted to whether CART can sustain profitability while investing in technology and international expansion. Fulfillment cost efficiency and take rate trends will be critical indicators of the business model's long-term viability.

Analyst commentary ahead of the release reflects cautious optimism. Multiple firms have raised price targets following the strong Q4 performance, with the consensus now at $50.50—representing 15% upside from current levels. However, some analysts note that competition from Amazon and traditional grocers remains intense, and any signs of market share loss or margin pressure could trigger a reassessment of the growth narrative.

Part 2: Historical Earnings Performance

CART has established a consistent pattern of exceeding expectations, beating consensus estimates in each of the past four quarters. The beats have been modest but steady: +1.92% in Q4 2025, +2.00% in Q3 2025, +5.13% in Q2 2025, and a slight miss of -2.63% in Q1 2025. This track record suggests management has effectively guided expectations and executed against its operating plan.

The magnitude of beats has compressed from the +5.13% surprise in Q2 2025 to the sub-2% range in recent quarters, indicating either tighter guidance or more challenging comparisons. Notably, the one miss came in Q1 2025—the same quarter investors are about to see reported—which may explain why the Street has set a more conservative bar this time around.

Sequential earnings progression shows strong momentum: from $0.37 in Q1 2025 to $0.41, $0.51, and $0.53 in subsequent quarters. This 43% sequential growth over three quarters demonstrates improving operational leverage and suggests the business model is scaling effectively. If CART hits the $0.57 consensus tomorrow, it would extend this upward trajectory and validate the thesis that profitability is sustainable.

Note: These figures reflect diluted GAAP earnings per share, reported before non-recurring items, and may differ from the non-GAAP figures used by some sources.

Part 2.1: Price Behavior Around Earnings

CART typically reports before market open, meaning Day 0 captures the first full trading session reaction while Day +1 reflects follow-through momentum.

Historical price behavior reveals significant volatility around earnings releases, with an average absolute Day 0 move of 1.23% expanding to 7.66% by Day +1. The Day +1 reaction has been particularly dramatic, ranging from a -12.26% decline (February 2025) to a +13.62% surge (May 2025), underscoring how sensitive the stock is to results and guidance.

The direction has been mixed but recently positive: the last four reports produced Day +1 gains in three instances, with the notable exception being February 2025's sharp selloff despite a strong earnings beat. This suggests the market is focused not just on the headline number but on forward guidance and growth sustainability. The May 2025 report—also a Q1 release—delivered the strongest reaction (+13.62% Day +1) despite a small earnings miss, indicating that Q1 results can be particularly impactful for sentiment.

Intraday ranges are substantial, averaging 4.40% on Day 0 and 8.93% on Day +1, creating both risk and opportunity for traders. The most recent report (February 2026) showed relatively muted Day 0 action (+0.94%) but still produced a healthy +9.21% Day +1 move, suggesting initial reactions don't always predict the ultimate direction.

Part 2.2: Options Market Expected Move

The options market is pricing an expected move of 7.71% through the May 8 weekly expiration, closely aligned with the 7.66% average Day +1 move observed historically. This suggests options traders are appropriately pricing in CART's typical post-earnings volatility, offering neither a clear bargain nor excessive premium for those considering volatility strategies.

Part 3: What Analysts Are Saying

Analysts maintain a cautiously optimistic stance on CART heading into earnings, with a consensus rating of 3.85 out of 5.0—solidly in buy territory. The average price target of $50.50 implies 15% upside from the current $43.74 price, suggesting the Street sees meaningful appreciation potential if the company can deliver on growth expectations.

The rating distribution shows strong conviction among bulls: 15 analysts rate CART a Strong Buy and 2 a Moderate Buy, representing more than half of the 33 analysts covering the stock. However, 14 Hold ratings and 2 Strong Sells indicate meaningful skepticism remains, likely reflecting concerns about competitive pressures and valuation.

Sentiment has improved recently, with the consensus rating ticking up from 3.82 a month ago to 3.85 currently. More notably, one analyst upgraded from Hold to Moderate Buy in the past month, while the Hold count declined from 15 to 14. This shift suggests growing confidence as the earnings date approaches, possibly reflecting positive data points on order trends or advertising momentum.

The wide target range—from a low of $36.00 to a high of $69.00—reveals significant disagreement about CART's fair value. The high-end target implies 58% upside, while the low-end sits 18% below current levels, underscoring the binary nature of the investment case. Bulls see a durable competitive moat and expanding profitability; bears worry about Amazon's grocery ambitions and the sustainability of take rates in a competitive market.

Part 4: Technical Picture

CART enters earnings with strengthening technical momentum, as the Barchart Technical Opinion has improved from a Sell signal at 8% a month ago to a Buy signal at 40% currently. The past week alone saw the signal jump from 24% to 40%, indicating accelerating positive momentum heading into the release.

Timeframe Analysis:

• Short-term (100% Buy): Strong buy signal indicates near-term momentum is decisively positive, with the stock in a clear uptrend over recent sessions
• Medium-term (50% Sell): Moderate sell signal suggests some consolidation or resistance in the intermediate timeframe, creating a mixed picture beyond the immediate term
• Long-term (50% Buy): Moderate buy signal reflects a constructive longer-term trend, though not as emphatic as the short-term reading

Trend Characteristics: The signal strength is classified as "Soft" but "Strengthening," suggesting momentum is building but not yet at extreme levels—a setup that could support further gains if earnings catalyze the next leg higher.

The stock is trading above all major moving averages, a bullish configuration that indicates broad-based support. CART sits above its 5-day ($42.78), 10-day ($42.76), 20-day ($41.88), 50-day ($39.36), 100-day ($39.89), and 200-day ($41.27) moving averages. The tight clustering of short-term averages just below the current price suggests recent consolidation, while the wider gap to the 50-day and 100-day averages reflects the stock's strong recovery from earlier lows.

The 50-day moving average at $39.36 represents the most significant support level, sitting 10% below current prices and marking the launching point for the recent rally. On the upside, the stock has cleared resistance in the $42–$43 range and appears to be testing new post-IPO highs. The technical setup is supportive heading into earnings, with momentum indicators positive and the stock holding above key support. However, the "Soft" signal strength suggests the rally isn't overextended, leaving room for a strong move in either direction depending on results. Traders should note that the 7.71% expected move would take CART to either $47.11 on the upside or $40.37 on the downside—the latter nearly coinciding with the 50-day average, which could provide a natural landing zone if results disappoint.