Red Starting Action for Corn

Overnight corn trade was mostly one directional, leading the market 4 to 6 cents lower to the day session. Tuesday’s session ended with corn futures 2-3 cents off their lows but with double digit losses. Another Chinese cancellation of old crop corn vessels weighed on the futures. The front months were 1.8% to 2.6% lower at the close, leaving Dec back near last week’s low. May futures roll off the board on Friday. There have still been zero deliveries against May, with the oldest long dated 2/23/23. 

EIA will release ethanol production data in the weekly Petroleum report later this morning. 

Trade estimates for Friday’s WASDE report range 1.267 to 1.480 billion bushels for old crop corn ending stocks. The average trade estimate would be 32.6 mbu looser than last month at 1.375 bbu. Global old crop carryout is expected to be 295.4 MMT, UNCH on average. Analysts are looking for USDA to lower Argentina’s corn crop by 2 MMT to 34.9 MMT. The lowest published figure is at 33 ahead of the report. 

New crop production is anticipated to be 15.14 bbu on average with a 180.8 bpa yield. The full range of estimates is from 178 to 183.5 bpa, for 14.555 to 15.30 bbu of production. Analysts are looking for US new crop carryout to be reported from as tight as 1.88 bbu, to as loose as 2.5 bbu. World corn carryout is expected to be between 295 MMT and 327 MMT according to survey responses. 

Jul 23 Corn  closed at $5.84 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents, currently down 4 cents

Nearby Cash   was $6.17 1/4, down 11 3/8 cents,

Sep 23 Corn  closed at $5.19, down 13 3/4 cents, currently 5 3/4 cents

Dec 23 Corn  closed at $5.18 1/4, down 11 1/2 cents, currently down 5 cents