Signs of Weaker Energy Demand Fuel Long Liquidation in Crude Prices

June WTI crude oil (CLM26) today is down -2.01 (-1.88%), and June RBOB gasoline (RBM26) is down -0.0104 (-0.29%).  Crude oil and gasoline prices gave up early gains today and fell sharply on concerns that higher energy prices are starting to curb demand and global economic growth.  

Long liquidation in crude oil accelerated today on signs that high oil prices are beginning to curb energy demand and global economic growth.   US Q1 GDP rose +2.0% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of +2.3%.  Also, Eurozone Q1 GDP rose +0.1% q/q and +0.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of +0.2% m/m and +0.9% y/y.

In overnight trade, WTI crude oil prices rallied to a 3-week high, and gasoline soared to a 3.75-year high after Axios reported that President Trump will be briefed on new military options for action in Iran, signaling the potential for fresh escalation in the war.  US Central Command has prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran, likely infrastructure targets.  Also, Central Command has asked for hypersonic missiles to be sent to the Middle East, which would mark the first time the US Army has deployed those weapons.

Crude prices also have support on signs that the US will maintain its naval blockade of Iran for the foreseeable future.  The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told his aides to prepare for an extended blockade and that it carries less of a risk for the US than resuming hostilities or walking away from the conflict without securing a deal that curbs Iran's nuclear activities.  

Energy prices remain underpinned amid the Strait of Hormuz's continued closure, threatening to deepen the global energy crisis.  The ongoing blockade could exacerbate global oil and fuel shortages, as about a fifth of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas transits through the strait.  Goldman Sachs estimates that crude output in the Persian Gulf has been curtailed by about 14.5 million bpd, or more than 50%, so far in April, and that the current disruption has drawn down nearly 500 million bbl from global crude stockpiles, which could hit a billion bbl by June.  

Persian Gulf oil producers have been forced to cut production by roughly 6% due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as local storage facilities reach capacity.  On April 13, the US began a blockade of all vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz that call at Iranian ports or are headed there.  President Trump said that the US naval blockade in the strait "will remain in full force" until a deal is fully agreed.  Iran had been able to export crude during the war before the blockade, as it exported about 1.7 million bpd in March.

On Tuesday, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) said it will leave OPEC on May 1.  The UAE's decision to leave OPEC, the third-largest producer in the cartel, is potentially bearish for crude prices, as it allows the UAE to boost production without being constrained by OPEC's output quotas.

On April 13, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that about 13 million bpd of global oil supply has been shuttered by the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.  The IEA also said that more than 80 energy facilities have been damaged during the conflict, and a recovery could take as long as two years.

In a bearish factor for crude, OPEC+ on April 5 said it will boost its crude output by 206,000 bpd in May, although that production hike now seems unlikely given that Middle East producers are being forced to cut production due to the Middle East war.  OPEC+ is trying to restore all of the 2.2 million bpd production cut it made in early 2024, but still has another 827,000 bpd left to restore.  OPEC's March crude production fell by -7.56 million bpd to a 35-year low of 22.05 million bpd.

Vortexa reported on Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least 7 days rose +25% w/w to 153.11 million bbl in the week ended April 24, the highest in 3 months.

The most recent US-brokered meeting in Geneva to end the war between Russia and Ukraine ended early as Ukrainian President Zelenskiy accused Russia of dragging out the war.  Russia has said the "territorial issue" remains unresolved with Ukraine, and there's "no hope of achieving a long-term settlement" to the war until Russia's demand for territory in Ukraine is accepted.  The outlook for the Russia-Ukraine war to continue will keep restrictions on Russian crude in place and is bullish for oil prices.

Ukrainian drone and missile attacks have targeted at least 30 Russian refineries over the past ten months, limiting Russia's crude oil export capabilities and reducing global oil supplies.  Also, since the end of November, Ukraine has ramped up attacks on Russian tankers, with at least six tankers attacked by drones and missiles in the Baltic Sea.  In addition, new US and EU sanctions on Russian oil companies, infrastructure, and tankers have curbed Russian oil exports.

Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of April 24 were +1.2% above the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -2.4% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -10.3% below the 5-year seasonal average.  US crude oil production in the week ending April 24 was unchanged w/w at 13.586 million bpd, mildly below the record high of 13.862 million bpd posted in the week of November 7.

Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active US oil rigs in the week ended April 24 fell by -3 to 407 rigs, just above the 4.25-year low of 406 rigs posted in the week ended December 19.  Over the past 2.5 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen sharply from the 5.5-year high of 627 rigs reported in December 2022.