Hogs with Expanded Limits after Sharp Losses

Lean hog futures saw a limit loss in the June and July contracts on Thursday, which set Friday’s daily limit at $7. The other front months closed $3.35 to $4.30 lower on the day, with the April contract below $80 for the first time since December of 2021. USDA’s National Average Base Hog price for Thursday afternoon was $78.83, down by 37 cents. The CME Lean Hog Index for 3/14 was $79.93, up by another 4 cents. 

The CFTC’s Commitment of Traders data is now current through 3/7, showing managed money was 2,079 contracts net short in lean hog futures and options. That was a 1,745 contract stronger net short from the week prior - via net new selling. 

USDA reported 35,634 MT of pork was sold for export during the week that ended 3/9. That was a 3-wk high but matched the 5-wk average and was 7% below the same week last year. Mexico was the top buyer with nearly 1/3 of the total sales for the week. The week’s export was 29,756 MT, a 14.4% larger volume than the same week last year, mainly to Mexico. The accumulated pork export reached 293.6k MT, now a 1% lead over last year’s pace. 

The nearby pork cutout futures settled the Thursday session with $2.50 to $4.27 losses. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was down by $1.89 to $84.49. USDA estimated federally inspected hog slaughter at 1.933 million head for the week through Thursday. That compares to 1.912m last week and 1.897m during the same week last year. 

Apr 23 Hogs  closed at $79.450, down $4.300,

May 23 Hogs  closed at $87.975, down $3.350

Apr 23 Pork Cutout  closed at $86.525, down $4.275,