Old crop soybeans ended the day in the black, after May saw a 20 cent trading range. The new crop futures went home fractionally weaker on Thursday. Meal futures ended the day $3.60 to $4.40 lower, but soybean oil bounced by as much as 2.5%. For May, that flipped the contract to a net gain for the week.
Updated CFTC data had the soybean spec traders at a 157,220 contract net long as of 3/7. That was a 27.7k contract stronger net long than the week prior, given both new longs and closed shorts. The commercials were shown at a 220k contract net short, which was 23k contracts more net short than 2/28’s settle.
An Allendale survey of producers has national 23/24 soybean acres at 87.768 million, compared to the Feb Outlook Forum’s 87.5m initial forecast.
The IGC cut world production to 370 MMT, with carryout down 3 MMT from February at 46 MMT. Their initial new crop production estimate is up 29 MMT at 399 MMT, with stocks growing 10 MMT to 56 MMT.
USDA Weekly Export Sales data had 665k MT of old crop soybean sales for the week that ended 3/9. That was at the upper end of the range of estimates and was a 6-wk high. Old crop exports came in at 773k MT for the week, bringing the season’s total to 42.839 MMT (1.574 bbu). Outstanding sales were 6.496 MMT for a total old crop commitment of 49.335 MMT (1.813 bbu). Last year’s commitments were 53.624 MMT (1.970 bbu) at the time and the WASDE forecast is for 54.84 MMT (2.015 bbu).
For the products, FAS reported 220k MT of 22/23 and 35k MT of 23/24 meal sales, and 3,869 MT of 22/23 oil sales. For soymeal, sales were down 32% wk/wk but inline with estimates. Soymeal commitments were 8.265 MMT as of 3/9, compared to the 12.43 MMT WASDE estimate and 8.792 MMT last year.
Paranagua port authorities cited 900k MT of soybeans were shipped in Jan and Feb from Brazil’s Paranagua port. That is 50% lower than the first two months of 2022, citing excess rainfall and harvest delays as opposed to media reported blockades and protests.
May 23 Soybeans closed at $14.91 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents,
Nearby Cash was $14.53, up 2 1/4 cents,
Jul 23 Soybeans closed at $14.76, up 1 1/2 cents,
Aug 23 Soybeans closed at $14.32, up 2 cents,
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
