Beans Fading through Midday

Soy prices are trading 3 1/4 to 8 1/4 cents lower so far. The new crop prices are the weaker with November contracts as the lead month down. Soymeal prices are trading off their lows on $0.50 to $2.40 losses so far. Front month soybean oil futures are working 70 points in the red for midday. 

USDA reported a private export sale for 184k MT of old crop soybeans this morning. The weekly FAS report had 23,234 MT of soybean net cancelations for the week that ended 3/2. New crop bookings were reported as 172,300 MT for the week. That left new crop bookings at 1.48 MMT compared to last year’s 3.099 MMT forward sales as of 3/2. 

For the products, USDA reported 319k MT of soymeal sold for 22/23 delivery and 110k for 23/24. Soybean oil bookings were 7,312 MT for the week, a 3-wk high. Accumulated soy oil shipments were just 32,046 MT as of 3/2 – a 92% lag from last year’s pace. 

USDA’s monthly balance sheet had soy crush 10 mbu lighter to 2.2 bbu, but exports 25 mbu higher to 2.015 bbu. That shrank carryout 15 mbu to a smaller than expected 210 mbu.  

The WAOB saw a 7.86 MMT lighter world soy crop, mainly due to a 7 MMT cut from Argentina. The trade average guess was to see a 36.7 MMT Argentina output; USDA reported 33 MMT. They only trimmed Argentina’s exports by 800k MT from last month. Argentina’s soymeal exports were also cut 1.3 MMT. Global soybean stocks dropped 2 MMT compared to Feb, now figured at 100 MMT and matching pre-report trade ideas. 

Brazil’s CONAB reduced their soybean production outlook by 1.4 MMT to 151.42 MMT in their monthly update. 

Rosario Grains Exchange reduced their forecast for Argentina’s soy output again, from 34.5 MMT down to 27 million metric tonnes. 

Mar 23 Soybeans  are at $15.21 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents,

Nearby Cash   is at $14.75 1/1, down 3 7/8 cents,

May 23 Soybeans  are at $15.14, down 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 23 Soybeans  are at $15.01 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents,