Corn Weaker after WASDE Data

The initial report reaction was bullish for corn, but futures began backing off almost immediately. Current prices are fractionally to 1 3/4 cents lower for midday. Corn was mixed going into the report, with weaker new crop prices. The new cash average price was shown at $6.60, down by a dime.  

USDA lowered the U.S. corn export forecast by 75 mbu to 1.850 bbu. That went straight to carryout. The trade was looking for 1.308 bbu on average; USDA showed 1.342 bbu. 

EIA data released this morning had ethanol production averaging 1.01 million barrels per day through the week that ended 3/3. That was a 7k bpd increase from the prior week. Ethanol stocks were 545k barrels higher to 25.32 million. 

USDA confirmed 3.171 MMT (124.8 mbu) of corn was exported in January. That was a 14% drop from December and a 45% lower volume than Jan last year. The season’s total export was up to 551 mbu, or 30% of USDA’s forecasted total. The DDGS exports were 887k MT, Jan ethanol exports were 117.8m gallons, and 86,610 MT of milo was shipped. 

Global WASDE data reduced corn production by 3.84 MMT, though Argentina was cut by 7 MMT to 40 flat. The average trade guess was to see 43.4 MMT for Argentina. Brazil was left UNCH at 125. Global trade was reduced by 6.36 MMT to 174.7 MMT. Carryout was lifted by 1.2 MMT to 296.5. 

Mar 23 Corn  is at $6.42 1/2, up 1/2 cent,

Nearby Cash   is at $6.33 1/8, down 1 3/8 cents,

May 23 Corn  is at $6.32 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents,

Jul 23 Corn  is at $6.20 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents,