
What Happened?
Shares of beauty, cosmetics, and personal care retailer Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) jumped 3.3% in the afternoon session after Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold, citing renewed strength and consumer engagement in the cosmetics sector.
The firm set a new price target of $700, up from $635, suggesting significant potential upside. Analysts pointed to a growing “makeup cycle” as a key reason for the positive outlook. This trend was supported by rising online search interest and increased demand across blush, concealer, and lip product categories.
Makeup, which accounted for roughly a third of Ulta's total sales, was identified as a major driver for future growth. The upgrade reflected improved confidence in the company's ability to capitalize on the broadening beauty market.
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What Is The Market Telling Us
Ulta’s shares are not very volatile and have only had 6 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful, although it might not be something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.
The biggest move we wrote about over the last year was about 1 month ago when the stock dropped 12.5% on the news that the company reported mixed fourth quarter 2025 results. Revenue and adjusted EBITDA came in ahead of analysts' expectations, while EPS was in line.
On the other hand, its full-year EPS guidance slightly missed. Still, the outlook was promising as management highlighted a continued focus on core business growth, and expansion into new categories. CFO Chris Del Orfus noted, "Our plan for 2026 delivers against our long-term financial targets, including market share expansion and profitable growth," but also acknowledged that operating margin improvement will depend on cost discipline and realizing productivity gains from recent investments. Overall, this was a mixed quarter, with the weak guidance weighing on shares.
Ulta is down 7.6% since the beginning of the year, and at $572.95 per share, it is trading 18.9% below its 52-week high of $706.82 from February 2026. Despite the year-to-date decline, investors who bought $1,000 worth of Ulta’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,808.
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