
Soybean prices are trading with 5 to 11 cent gains, with meal recovering $5.40 to $6.40, so far on report day. The meal market continued its pull back on Tuesday with another 1.4% to 1.5% loss on the day – coming shortly after making contract highs on Friday. Soybean oil futures bounced on Tuesday with 2.3% to 2.7% gains. The net product value was then a net 2 cents per bushel improved, as the soy oil offset the meal. Beans themselves, however, were lower in the old crop with a 6 cent loss in the March. The new crop contracts were fractionally to 3 1/4 cents higher. Preliminary soybean open interest rose 5,885 contracts, with sizeable index fund rolling from March to May.
Ahead of the monthly WASDE report, analysts expect U.S. soybean carryout to be nearly UNCH, at 211.2 mbu. The low end is to see a 34 mbu trim to 176, while the high end would be a 230 mbu carryout and 20 above the Jan report.
Monthly Census data showed the official Dec soybean export was 8.295 MMT, or 304.8 mbu. That was a 2.3% increase from Dec ’21 and set the MY total at 1.097 bbu through the first 4 months. For the products, the data had 1.196 MMT of meal exports and 15.7k MT of soy oil exports.
Canadian soybean stocks were 3.654 MMT in the StatsCan December count. That compares to 3.205 MMT after the 2021 drought. Canola supplies were 11.356 MMT, up from 8.786 MMT last year.
Brazil’s AgRural reported the soy harvest at 9% finished compared with 16% last year and 5% last week.
Private analyst Cordonnier estimates the Argentina soybean crop at 38 MMT, 1 MMT below their prior figure and 4 MMT below the trade average guess for the WASDE report.
Mar 23 Soybeans closed at $15.15 1/4, down 6 cents, currently up 11 1/4 cents
Nearby Cash was $14.73, down 6 1/2 cents,
May 23 Soybeans closed at $15.10 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents, currently up 11 cents
Jul 23 Soybeans closed at $15.04 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents, currently up 9 1/4 cents
On the date of publication, Alan Brugler did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.