The stocks in this article have caught Wall Street’s attention in a big way, with price targets implying returns above 20%. But investors should take these forecasts with a grain of salt because analysts typically say nice things about companies so their firms can win business in other product lines like M&A advisory.
At StockStory, we look beyond the headlines with our independent analysis to determine whether these bullish calls are justified. That said, here are two stocks where Wall Street’s excitement appears well-founded and one where consensus estimates seem disconnected from reality.
One Stock to Sell:
AAON (AAON)
Consensus Price Target: $115.25 (16.7% implied return)
Backed by two million square feet of lab testing space, AAON (NASDAQ:AAON) makes heating, ventilation, and air conditioning equipment for different types of buildings.
Why Are We Wary of AAON?
- Day-to-day expenses have swelled relative to revenue over the last five years as its operating margin fell by 6 percentage points
- Earnings per share fell by 22.7% annually over the last two years while its revenue grew, showing its incremental sales were much less profitable
- Free cash flow margin dropped by 27.2 percentage points over the last five years, implying the company became more capital intensive as competition picked up
AAON is trading at $98.78 per share, or 49.5x forward P/E. Check out our free in-depth research report to learn more about why AAON doesn’t pass our bar.
Two Stocks to Watch:
MongoDB (MDB)
Consensus Price Target: $448.74 (25.3% implied return)
Named after "humongous database," reflecting its ability to handle massive data loads, MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) provides a flexible document-based database platform that helps developers build, deploy, and maintain modern applications more efficiently.
Why Does MDB Stand Out?
- ARR trends over the last year show it’s maintaining a steady flow of long-term contracts that contribute positively to its revenue predictability
- Estimated revenue growth of 19.9% for the next 12 months implies its momentum over the last two years will continue
- Free cash flow margin is on track to jump by 1.7 percentage points next year, meaning the company will have more resources to pursue growth initiatives, repurchase shares, or pay dividends
At $358.05 per share, MongoDB trades at 10.1x forward price-to-sales. Is now a good time to buy? See for yourself in our full research report, it’s free.
Skyward Specialty Insurance (SKWD)
Consensus Price Target: $63.80 (49.3% implied return)
Founded in 2006 to serve markets where standard insurance coverage falls short, Skyward Specialty Insurance (NASDAQ:SKWD) provides customized commercial property, casualty, and health insurance solutions for underserved or specialized market niches.
Why Should You Buy SKWD?
- Net premiums earned surged by 26.6% annually over the past two years, reflecting strong market share gains this cycle
- Annual book value per share growth of 29.3% over the last two years was superb and indicates its capital strength increased during this cycle
- Expected book value per share growth of 22.4% for the next year suggests its capital position will strengthen considerably
Skyward Specialty Insurance’s stock price of $42.74 implies a valuation ratio of 1.8x forward P/B. Is now the right time to buy? Find out in our full research report, it’s free.
High-Quality Stocks for All Market Conditions
If your portfolio success hinges on just 4 stocks, your wealth is built on fragile ground. You have a small window to secure high-quality assets before the market widens and these prices disappear.
Don’t wait for the next volatility shock. Check out our Top 5 Strong Momentum Stocks for this week. This is a curated list of our High Quality stocks that have generated a market-beating return of 244% over the last five years (as of June 30, 2025).
Stocks that made our list in 2020 include now familiar names such as Nvidia (+1,326% between June 2020 and June 2025) as well as under-the-radar businesses like the once-small-cap company Exlservice (+354% five-year return). Find your next big winner with StockStory today.
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