TSLA Is Down YTD in 2026 and Analysts Are Split - TSLR and TSDD Offer 2X Bull Or Bear Leverage

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Tesla (TSLA) reports first-quarter 2026 results on April 22 after the close. Shares are down significantly year-to-date, and the stock carries a beta often over 1.5, meaning it tends to move nearly twice as much as the broader market in either direction. That combination of an intense

drawdown and elevated price sensitivity has traders braced for a potential volatile reaction to the Q1 numbers and any fresh guidance from CEO Elon Musk.

Tesla missed analyst earnings estimates in all four quarters of 2025 while simultaneously executing a deliberate pivot away from being primarily an electric vehicle manufacturer. Management is repositioning the company around what it calls a "physical AI" business, centered on autonomous robotaxi technology, robotics, and software-driven revenue. That transition requires heavy capital investment now, with the payoff expected later, and investors are divided on whether the timeline and the current valuation line up.

For traders looking to act on a directional view heading into April 22, the GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR) and the GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD) offer 200% bullish or bearish daily leverage on Tesla stock.

Q1 2026 Earnings Expectations

Wall Street expects Tesla to report earnings of $0.24 per share for Q1 2026, representing 60% growth compared to $0.15 in the same quarter last year. Tesla missed estimates in each of the past four quarters, with the largest shortfall in Q1 2025 when it reported $0.15 against a $0.35

estimate, a 57% miss. The misses narrowed through the year, but the pattern has kept analyst sentiment guarded heading into April 22.

For the full year, the consensus stands at $1.42 in EPS, roughly 30% growth over 2025. The high estimate on the Street is $2.84 and the low is $0.64, a range that reflects how differently analysts are modeling the transition.

The most recent quarter of actual results, Q4 2025, offered some encouragement. Tesla reported non-GAAP EPS of $0.50 against a $0.44 estimate, a 13.6% beat, and revenue of $24.9 billion came in slightly above the $24.7 billion consensus. Q1 2026 deliveries of 358,023 vehicles came in just below the 365,000 consensus but reflected 6% year-over-year growth. Whether that Q4 momentum carries through to the full Q1 financials is the central question for April 22.

Wall Street Analysts are Split on Tesla

Tesla carries a consensus Hold rating from 43 analysts, with a mean 12-month price target of $403.47. The breakdown underneath that rating is unusually wide: 15 analysts rate it a Strong Buy, 2 a Moderate Buy, 16 a Hold, and 10 a Strong Sell.

The high target is $600, and the low is $125 meaning analysts have fundamentally different views on what the business is worth and when, or whether, the robotaxi thesis pays off.That division makes the April 22 earnings call a meaningful, and likely a binary, event.

A strong quarter, with encouraging commentary on the Cybercab launch and autonomous-vehicle progress, could help recover a meaningful portion of the YTD decline. However, a miss, or cautious guidance on the rollout timeline, could add to the pressure.

Trading TSLA Earnings With 2X Long and Short Leverage 

Both TSLR and TSDD target 200% daily leverage, one on the long side and one on the short side. Traders can express an equally amplified view in either direction.

Bullish Trade: TSLR

GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR) allows traders to double

their daily performance of TSLA's price movements.

• Targets 200% of TSLA's daily performance
  • When TSLA rises 1%, TSLR aims for a 2% gain (before fees)
  • When TSLA falls 1%, TSLR aims for a 2% decline (before fees), so losses may increase two times than in TSLA.
  • Aims to suit traders expecting Tesla to beat Q1 estimates, deliver positive Cybercab progress updates, or signal that the transition year is closer to completion than current sentiment reflects

Bearish Trade: TSDD

GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD) provides inverse performance to TSLA at 200% of its daily change, moving in the opposite direction of the stock.

• Targets 200% of the inverse of TSLA's daily performance. When TSLA drops 1%, TSDD aims for a 2% gain (before fees). If TSLA rises 1%, TSDD aims to fall 2% before fees, so losses may increase more quickly if TSLA moves higher.
• Targets traders anticipating another EPS miss, further pressure on automotive margins, or disappointing commentary on the autonomous vehicle roadmap.
• Offers a way to express a bearish view or hedge existing TSLA exposure in accounts where traditional short-selling is restricted

Both funds reset daily and are designed for short-term tactical positions rather than long-term holds. Holding either fund beyond a single day introduces compounding effects, and with a beta of 1.91, TSLA's baseline volatility means those effects can move quickly in either direction.

Prepare for April Earnings Volatility

The April 22 report serves as a high-stakes test of Tesla’s structural evolution from automaker to AI powerhouse. With the stock caught between its legacy manufacturing roots and an ambitious autonomous future, these results will likely dictate the next major trend for the share price. Investors are searching for a clear, achievable roadmap to justify the current valuation and finally break the persistent cycle of earnings misses.

For active participants, this sharp division among analysts and Tesla’s signature high beta create a fertile environment for tactical positioning. Whether utilizing GraniteShares 2x Long TSLA Daily ETF (TSLR) to capture a bullish recovery or GraniteShares 2x Short TSLA Daily ETF (TSDD) to trade the potential downside, the market reaction is expected to be significant.

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