Feb Nymex natural gas (NGG23) on Monday closed up +0.273 (+8.60%).
Feb nat-gas Monday rallied sharply on expectations for colder temperatures to move into the U.S., which would boost heating demand for nat-gas and sparked fund short-covering in nat-gas futures. Â Forecaster Maxar Technologies on Monday said that extreme below-normal temperatures are expected from the Rockies to the Midwest from Jan 28-31
Last Friday, Feb nat-gas plunged to a 19-month nearest-futures low. Â Nat-gas prices have fallen sharply over the past month as abnormally mild weather across the northern hemisphere erodes heating demand for nat-gas.
The warm temperatures this winter have caused rising nat-gas inventories in Europe and the U.S., with gas storage across Europe currently 78% full as of last Thursday, far above the 5-year average for this time of year of 58%. Â Also, U.S. nat-gas inventories as of Jan 13 are +1.2% above the 5-year average, the most in a year.
A negative factor for nat-gas prices is the continued closure of the Freeport LNG export terminal. Â On Jan 12, the Rapidian Energy Group said that the Freeport LNG export terminal, closed since an explosion on June 8, will likely be offline "for several more months." Â The report cited the delay in the "extensive personnel training" that is being required by federal regulators overseeing the restart of the terminal. Â The closure of the facility has been bearish for nat-gas prices since the reduction in LNG exports has boosted U.S. nat-gas inventories. Â The Freeport terminal normally accounts for about 20% of all U.S. nat-gas exports and receives about 2 bcf, or 2.5%, of the output from the lower 48 U.S. states.
Lower-48 state dry gas production on Monday was 101.1 bcf (+7.8% y/y), modestly below the record high of 103.6 bcf posted on Oct 3, according to BNEF. Â Lower-48 state gas demand Monday was 98.2 bcf/day, down by -8.1% y/y, according to BNEF. Â LNG net flow to U.S. LNG export terminals Monday was 11.8 bcf/day, down -2.0% w/w.
A decline in U.S. electricity output is bearish for nat-gas demand from utility providers. Â The Edison Electric Institute reported last Thursday that total U.S. electricity output in the week ended Jan 14 fell -4.1% y/y to 77,445 GWh (gigawatt hours). Â However, cumulative U.S. electricity output in the 52-week period ending Jan 14 rose +2.3% y/y to 4,130,235 GWh.
Nat-gas prices have support as EU countries agreed to cut nat-gas demand from Russia by 15% by early 2023. Â Also, Russia recently slashed nat-gas exports to Europe to 20% of capacity, putting upward pressure on European nat-gas prices.
Last Thursday's weekly EIA report was bearish for nat-gas prices since it showed U.S. nat gas inventories fell -82 bcf, more than expectations of -76 bcf but much less than the 5-year average for this time of year of -156 bcf. Â Nat-gas inventories are +1.2% above their 5-year seasonal average.
Baker Hughes reported last Friday that the number of active U.S. nat-gas drilling rigs in the week ended Jan 20 rose by +6 to 156 rigs, moderately below the 3-1/4 year high of 166 rigs posted in the week ended Sep 9. Â Active rigs have more than doubled from the record low of 68 rigs posted in July 2020 (data since 1987).
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More Natural Gas News from Barchart
- Crude Prices Underpinned by Expectations of Stronger Chinese Energy Demand
- Nat-Gas Prices Fall as Warm Winter Temps Boost Nat-Gas Supplies
- Crude Gains on Chinese Energy Demand Optimism
- Nat-Gas Prices Fall on Ample U.S. Nat-Gas Inventories
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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