Corn holds up as crude oil sells off

I am Stephen Davis, senior market strategist at Walsh Trading, Inc., Chicago, Illinois. You can reach me at 312-878-2391.

Corn futures today held up even while crude oil sold off. Typically, the prices of corn and other grains go down along with crude oil. 

A complicating factor is the ongoing shortage and high prices of fertilizer. This could lead to less-than-ideal use of fertilizer and lower corn yields, signaling long-term support for the corn market, in my opinion. 

Brazil, the world's third largest corn producer is reportedly reducing its fertilizer use from last year by 2 million tons to 47 million tons. At the same time,  Brazil’s Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira said the government wants to raise the ethanol blend to 32% in the first half of the year, citing higher costs for fossil ​fuels as oil prices surge following conflict in Iran. In Brazil, sugarcane along with corn is used to produce ethanol.

In the United States, a recent survey by the National Corn Growers Association revealed that beyond rising costs, farmers are increasingly worried about whether fertilizer will be available when they need it. Global shipping disruptions and reports of curtailed fertilizer production in several countries are tightening supplies. The survey also showed that for every one farmer expressing greater concern about fertilizer price and availability for the 2026 crop, there were nearly two farmers expressing greater concern for the 2027 crop.

The good news is that rain is headed into the dry corn growing areas of the Midwest this week and possibly next week. Soil moisture is needed ahead of the planting season. The Midwest and Gulf corn basis is strong as farmers in the spring are prioritizing planting over selling cash grain. 

Today, the July 2026 corn price is under the 200-day moving average. In my opinion, this is a good time to buy. A trade strategy is to buy July 2026 Corn at 448½, good til canceled (GTC).  Have the sell stop at 438½ GTC. Profit objective for the trade is 468½ GTC.

To discuss trading strategies, contact me anytime. Have an excellent day. 

Stephen Davis
Senior Market Strategist 
Walsh Trading

Direct 312 878 2391 
Toll Free 800 556 9411
sdavis@walshtrading.com  
www.walshtrading.com

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