Cattle Higher for CoF Data

Front month cattle futures are trading with 5 to 45 cent gains so far ahead of the NASS report. USDA reported light to modest cash activity for Thursday, with Southern trade at $155 and Northern trade mostly near $157. The Thursday FCE auction saw no sales between $153 bids and $156 - $157 asks for the 1,045 head listed. Feeder cattle futures are trading mixed so far within 20 cents of UNCH. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was $177.83 for 12/21, down by another 31 cents. 

Ahead of the monthly CoF report on Friday, analysts are looking for a 2.3% lighter Dec 1 inventory. That would be 11.65m head if realized. The full range of estimates is to see between 96.5% to 98% of Dec 1 2021 numbers. November placements are expected to be below a year ago by 2% to 8.2% - with the average trade guess for 4.2% lighter. November marketings average 100.9% of last year going into the report, though the analysts surveyed are split between a 0.1% lower and a 1.3% higher. 

The monthly Cold Storage data showed 521.87m lbs of beef was in the cooler for the November stock. That was 2.3% above October’s stocks, and was up 6.4% from November 2021. 

Wholesale Boxed Beef prices were higher in the Friday AM report, as Choice was $6.32 stronger and Select was up by $3.53. The USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter for the week through Thursday at 459k head. That is down by 27k head from last week, and is running 19k head below last week’s pace. 

Dec 22 Cattle  are at $156.300, up $0.400,

Feb 23 Cattle  are at $157.425, up $0.125,

April 23 Cattle  are at $161.475, up $0.150,

Jan 23 Feeder Cattle  are at $183.700, down $0.275

Mar 23 Feeder Cattle  are at $186.575, up $0.125