Fannie Mae Is Now Accepting Crypto-Backed Mortgages. Does That Make FNMA Stock a Buy?

The U.S. housing finance market is taking a significant step toward integrating digital assets into the mainstream, as the Federal National Mortgage Association (FNMA) begins accepting its first crypto-backed mortgage structure. In partnership with Better Home & Finance and Coinbase Global (COIN), borrowers can now pledge assets like Bitcoin or stablecoins as collateral for a separate loan used to fund a down payment, allowing them to retain crypto exposure rather than liquidate holdings.

The structure involves two loans (a traditional mortgage and a crypto-backed loan), both held by Better, with pledged crypto locked until repayment.

This development marks a pivotal shift as a government-backed mortgage giant effectively legitimizes cryptocurrency within traditional underwriting frameworks. While the product remains niche and introduces added complexity such as a dual-loan structure and exposure to crypto volatility, it signals growing institutional acceptance of digital assets as part of the real economy.

So, let’s analyze whether this innovation represents a meaningful growth catalyst for FNMA stock or simply a symbolic step in financial modernization.

About Federal National Mortgage Association Stock

The Federal National Mortgage Association, commonly known as Fannie Mae, is a U.S. government-sponsored enterprise founded in 1938 to expand liquidity in the housing market by purchasing and securitizing residential mortgages. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the company operates under federal conservatorship and plays a central role in supporting homeownership by providing stability and access to mortgage financing. Fannie Mae has a market cap of around $5.6 billion, reflecting its unique structure as a publicly traded yet government-controlled entity.

Shares of FNMA have remained highly volatile in 2026, with recent price action skewing decisively to the downside as sentiment around housing policy and structural uncertainty weakens.

Year-to-date (YTD), FNMA has pulled back meaningfully, with the stock down 34.76% in 2026, reflecting fading momentum after earlier speculative rallies tied to privatization hopes and policy reform. The longer-term trend is similarly weak as shares have declined 45%% over the past six months, underscoring persistent investor caution around its earnings profile and ongoing government conservatorship.

In the near term, volatility has intensified sharply. On March 26, FNMA plunged 8.2% in a single session, closing at $4.94, as selling pressure accelerated despite broader industry developments such as crypto-backed mortgage adoption.

Priced at 0.96 times sales, the stock trades at a discount to the sector median.

Mixed Financial Performance

Fannie Mae reported its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on Feb. 11, delivering stable top line performance but weaker year-over-year (YOY) profitability.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, Fannie Mae posted net income of $3.5 billion, representing a decline from $4.1 billion in Q4 2024. Net revenues remained essentially flat at $7.3 billion, supported by steady guaranty fee income generated from its roughly $4.1 trillion guaranty book of business.

For the full year 2025, Fannie Mae reported net income of $14.4 billion, down from $17 billion in 2024, marking a 15% YOY decline. Despite this, net revenues remained broadly unchanged at around $29 billion, underscoring the resilience of its core business model. A key driver of the earnings decline was a shift from a $186 million credit loss benefit in 2024 to a $1.6 billion provision in 2025, alongside a $1.7 billion drop in fair value gains.

From an operating standpoint, net interest income held steady at $28.6 billion. Expense discipline improved, with non-interest expenses declining by about $141 million YOY, including reductions in administrative costs. Meanwhile, the company’s net worth rose to $109 billion at year-end 2025, up from $94.7 billion in 2024.

Analysts tracking FNMA project the company’s EPS to climb 4.5% YOY to $2.55 in fiscal 2026 and 5.1% to $2.68 in 2027.

What Do Analysts Expect for Fannie Mae Stock?

Analyst coverage for Fannie Mae is extremely limited due to its status as a government-sponsored enterprise trading over-the-counter.

Overall, FNMA has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating. Of the six analysts covering the stock, three advise a “Strong Buy,” one analyst is on the sidelines, giving it a “Hold” rating, one suggests “Moderate Sell,” and one rate it as a “Strong Sell.”

The average analyst price target for FNMA is $13.30, indicating a potential upside of 84%. The Street-high target price of $20 suggests that the stock could rally as much as 176.6%.