Weak Afternoon Turns Hogs Red for Close

After a light gap higher to start Thursday took hogs above yesterday’s high, prices faded and ended the day mostly red. Losses were limited to 45 cents in the front months, though October hogs closed a net 7 cents in the black ahead of the USDA report. The National Average Base Hog price for Thursday was $4.39 lower at $88.35. The CME Lean Hog Index for 9/27 was 81 cents lower to $95.60. 

NASS counted a 73.8m head hog inventory on Sep 1, which was up from the 72.52m head in June but down 1.43% from Sep 2020. The trade was looking for a 0.8% drop on average. Market hogs were shown as 67.648m head compared to 68.677m head last year and 68.05m head expected. The breeding herd was 6.152m head, down 0.6% yr/yr compared to the expected 0.4% reduction. USDA had farrowing intentions at 2.973m head for Sep-Nov and 2.902m head for Dec-Feb, compared to 3.05m head and 2.919m head last year respectively. 

USDA reported weekly pork export bookings were 34k MT during the week that ended 9/22. The top buyer for the week was Mexico with 23,700 MT. Accumulated pork shipments form the FAS data reached 1.072 MMT – a 21% lag from last year’s pace. 

Pork cutout futures closed mixed but mostly lower within 67 cents of UNCH. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was down by $1.97 in the PM update to $98.80. Bellies fell by $16.38. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 1.927m head for the week through Thursday. That is down 2,000 head wk/wk but up 42,000 head from the same week last year. 

Oct 22 Hogs  closed at $89.450, up $0.075,

Dec 22 Hogs  closed at $75.725, down $0.100

Oct 22 Pork Cutout  closed at $98.625, down $0.425,