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Wheat Dec '18 (ZWZ18)

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Wheat Futures Market News and Commentary

Wheat Market News and Commentary

Wheat futures closed Thursday with most contracts steady to 3 cents higher, with a couple MPLS contracts fractionally lower. Strength in corn and short covering late in the session offset a stronger US dollar. All wheat old crop exports sales for the week of 3/14 were tallied at 298,574 MT this morning, below trade estimates but 12.58% larger than the same week a year ago. South Korea bought 75,500 MT, with reductions of 45,000 MT for Singapore (switched to Sri Lanka). New crop sales were reported at 138,816 MT, with total forward sales for 19/20 YTD up 11.6% over last year. Total export commitments are now 3.1% larger than the same time in 2018.May 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.66 1/2, up 1 3/4 cents,May 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.47, up 3 cents,May 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.71 1/4, down 1/4 cent --provided by Brugler Marketing & Management
Spring Wheat Basis: 'S'-Now Big Deal

If you’re keeping up to date on my basis postings, you’ll recall my most recent piece on soybeans (“Soybean Basis: The Weight of Futures”) talked about the often-inverse relationship between futures and basis. In other words, if the futures market posts a strong rally, grain merchandisers will often soften basis a bit on the idea that futures will do a good enough job of sourcing enough supplies to meet demand. Last week saw national average soybean basis firm, slightly, despite solid gains in futures, until Friday.Spring wheat was different, though. Here we saw the national average basis (cmdty National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index minus futures) actually weaken as the futures market firmed late in the week. To be exact, the May Minneapolis futures contract gained 5 1/2 cents, paltry indeed compared to the rest of the grain and oilseed complex, while national average basis weakened 1 1/4 cents from the previous to finish at 53 1/4 cents under the May. When one considers much of the U.S. Northern Plains remains buried by feet of snow, in mid-March, it seems counter-intuitive that spring wheat basis should be weakening.Until you factor in where bushels are being held. Most of the wheat in the U.S. winds up in commercial storage, where ownership is more easily transferred from seller to buyer. Therefore, if one doesn’t have to wait for the snow to melt before pulling grain out of an on-farm bin, it creates a situation where winter (into spring) weather doesn’t create a similar search for supplies like what has been seen in corn and soybeans. Darin NewsomPresidentDarin Newsom Analysis Inc.
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