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30-Day Fed Funds Cash (ZQY00)

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30-Day Fed Funds Futures Market News and Commentary

10-Year T-Notes Close Lower on Report of US/China Trade Meeting Next Week

Sep 10-year T-notes (ZNU19) on Tuesday closed -7.5 ticks lower and the 10-year T-note yield rose by +2.6 bp to a 1-week high of 2.072%. T-notes were pressured on Tuesday by an improved economic outlook after Bloomberg reported that face-to-face US/Chinese trade talks will resume early next week. U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer and his team will be in China early next week through Wednesday to resume the talks that broke down in May, according to Bloomberg. A Trump administration official warned not to expect any breakthroughs next week since the two sides have plenty to resolve. T-note prices were also pressured by the news late Monday that Congress and the White House reached a deal on new 2-year budget caps and a debt ceiling suspension, which if passed by Congress and signed by President Trump, would assure that the Treasury will not default in September or October when the Treasury's cash otherwise runs out. T-note prices also saw pressure from supply overhang as investors greeted Tuesday's $40 billion 2-year T-note auction with slightly below-average demand. The Treasury will sell $41 billion of 5-year T-notes and $20 billion of 2-year floating-rate notes on Wednesday, and then $32 billion of 7-year T-notes on Thursday. T-notes found underlying support early Tuesday on weak U.S. economic data. The May FHFA U.S. home price index rose by only +0.1% m/m (vs expectations of +0.4%), the July Richmond Fed index fell by -15 to points to -12 (vs expectations of a rise to 5), and June existing home sales fell by -1.7% to 5.27 million units (below expectations of 5.32 million). Also, the IMF on Tuesday cut its world GDP forecast from April's forecast by -0.1 points for 2019-20 to +3.2% in 2019 and +3.5 in 2020. The IMF warned that policy "missteps" on trade and Brexit would derail the expected uptick in GDP growth in 2020 to +3.5% from +3.2% in 2019. T-note prices were pressured by Tuesday's rise in the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation expectations rate to a new 2-month high 1.814%. The 10-year breakeven rate ended the day up +1.2 bp at 1.807%.
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