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Sugar #11 Oct '19 (SBV19)

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Sugar #11 Futures Market News and Commentary

Sugar Prices Move Lower on Weakness in the Brazilian Real

July NY world sugar #11 (SBN19) this morning is down -0.14 (-1.09%) and Aug ICE London white sugar #5 (SWQ19) is down -2.20 (-0.65%). Weakness in the Brazilian real against the dollar today is pushing sugar prices lower as the weak real encourages exports from Brazil's sugar producers. Losses were limited on carry-over support from Tuesday's data from Conab, Brazil's national crop agency, that showed Brazil 2018/19 sugar output in the marketing year ended March 31 fell -17.2% y/y to an 11-year low of 31.4 MMT. Conab also reported that the amount of sugar cane diverted to sugar production in 2018/19 fell to a record low of 36.4% versus 45.9% in 2017/18, and that Brazil's 2018/19 ethanol production rose +23.3% y/y to a record 33.6 bln liters. A rally in crude oil prices Tuesday to a new 5-3/4 month high is another bullish factor for sugar prices. Higher crude oil prices benefit ethanol prices and may prompt Brazil's sugar mills to divert more cane crushing to ethanol production rather than sugar production, thus curbing sugar supplies. Brazil hydrous ethanol prices last Thursday rose to 1.9846 reals per liter, the highest since the data began in 2000. Weakness in GBP/USD is a negative factor of Aug London sugar prices with GBP/USD down to a new 2-month low today, since London sugar is priced in British pounds. Huge short-positions in white London sugar futures may spur short-covering in London sugar prices after last Friday's Commitment of Traders (COT) data showed that fund managers boosted their net-short ICE London sugar positions by 1,451 contracts to a record 14,668 contracts in the week ended April 16, the most since the data began in 2011. Another supportive factor for sugar was last Thursday’s projection from the USDA's FAS that Thailand's 2019/20 sugar output, the world's fourth-largest, will fall by -2% y/y to 13.9 MMT.
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